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Searching for Job Security and the Consequences of Job Loss

Author

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  • Gregor Jarosch

Abstract

Job loss comes with large present value earnings losses which elude workhorse models of unemployment and labor market policy. I propose a parsimonious model of a frictional labor market in which jobs differ in terms of unemployment risk and workers search off- and on-the-job. This gives rise to a job ladder with slippery bottom rungs where unemployment spells beget unemployment spells. I allow for human capital to respond to time spent out of work and estimate the framework on German Social Security data. The model captures the joint response of wages, employment, and unemployment risk to job loss which I measure empirically. The key driver of the “unemployment scar” is the loss in job security and its interaction with the evolution of human capital.

Suggested Citation

  • Gregor Jarosch, 2021. "Searching for Job Security and the Consequences of Job Loss," NBER Working Papers 28481, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:28481
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Joao Galindo da Fonseca, 2022. "Unemployment, Entrepreneurship and Firm Outcomes," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 45, pages 322-338, July.
    2. Adrien Bilal & Niklas Engbom & Simon Mongey & Giovanni L. Violante, 2022. "Firm and Worker Dynamics in a Frictional Labor Market," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 90(4), pages 1425-1462, July.
    3. Antoine Bertheau & Edoardo Maria Acabbi & Cristina Barceló & Andreas Gulyas & Stefano Lombardi & Raffaele Saggio, 2023. "The Unequal Consequences of Job Loss across Countries," American Economic Review: Insights, American Economic Association, vol. 5(3), pages 393-408, September.
    4. Rasmus Lentz & Suphanit Piyapromdee & Jean-Marc Robin, 2022. "The Anatomy of Sorting - Evidence from Danish Data," Working Papers hal-03869383, HAL.
    5. Devesh Roy & Sunil Saroj & Mamata Pradhan, 2022. "Nature of employment and outcomes for urban labor: evidence from the latest labor force surveys in India," Indian Economic Review, Springer, vol. 57(1), pages 165-221, June.
    6. Gottfries, Axel & Teulings, Coen, 2023. "Returns to on-the-job search and wage dispersion," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    7. Fatih Guvenen & Fatih Karahan & Serdar Ozkan & Jae Song, 2021. "What Do Data on Millions of U.S. Workers Reveal About Lifecycle Earnings Dynamics?," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 89(5), pages 2303-2339, September.
    8. Bertheau, Antoine & Acabbi, Edoardo & Barcelo, Cristina & Gulyas, Andreas & Lombardi, Stefano & Saggio, Raffaele, 2022. "The Unequal Cost of Job Loss across Countries," IZA Discussion Papers 15033, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    9. Mark Borgschulte & David Molitor & Eric Zou, 2022. "Air Pollution and the Labor Market: Evidence from Wildfire Smoke," NBER Working Papers 29952, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Carneiro, Anabela & Portugal, Pedro & Raposo, Pedro & Rodrigues, Paulo M.M., 2023. "The persistence of wages," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 233(2), pages 596-611.
    11. Garcia-Louzao, Jose & Hospido, Laura & Ruggieri, Alessandro, 2023. "Dual returns to experience," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    12. Jon Ellingsen & Caroline Espegren, 2022. "Lost in transition? Earnings losses of displaced petroleum workers," Working Papers No 06/2022, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
    13. Nezih Guner & Alessandro Ruggieri, 2021. "Misallocation and inequality," Discussion Papers 2021/01, University of Nottingham, Centre for Finance, Credit and Macroeconomics (CFCM).
    14. Rud, Juan-Pablo & Simmons, Michael & Toews, Gerhard & Aragon, Fernando, 2024. "Job displacement costs of phasing out coal," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 236(C).
    15. Beuermann, Diether W. & Bottan, Nicolas L. & Hoffmann, Bridget & Jackson, C. Kirabo & Vera-Cossio, Diego, 2024. "Does education prevent job loss during downturns? Evidence from exogenous school assignments and COVID-19 in Barbados," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 162(C).
    16. Serdar Birinci & Fatih Karahan & Yusuf Mercan & Kurt See, 2022. "Labor Market Shocks and Monetary Policy," Working Papers 2022-016, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, revised Sep 2023.
    17. Elin Halvorsen & Hans A Holter & Serdar Ozkan & Kjetil Storesletten, 2024. "Dissecting Idiosyncratic Earnings Risk," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 22(2), pages 617-668.
    18. Jake Bradley & Lukas Mann, 2023. "Learning about labour markets," Discussion Papers 2023/01, University of Nottingham, Centre for Finance, Credit and Macroeconomics (CFCM).
    19. Carranza, Eliana & Veuger, Stan & Weber, Michael, 2023. "Protecting Workers, Firms, and Worker-Firm Attachment During COVID-19: Economic Considerations for the Assessment of Policy Measures," Jobs Group Papers, Notes, and Guides 32571393, The World Bank.
    20. Rasmus Lentz & Suphanit Piyapromdee & Jean‐Marc Robin, 2023. "The Anatomy of Sorting—Evidence From Danish Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 91(6), pages 2409-2455, November.
    21. Simmons, Michael, 2023. "Job-to-job transitions, job finding and the ins of unemployment," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    22. Krivenko, Pavel, 2023. "The Role of Moving Shocks, Unemployment, and Policy in Understanding Housing Bust," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • J3 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs

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