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Common Shocks in Stocks and Bonds

Author

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  • Anna Cieslak
  • Hao Pang

Abstract

We propose an approach to identifying economic shocks (monetary, growth, and risk-premium news) from stock returns and Treasury yield changes, which allows us to study the drivers of asset prices at a daily frequency since the early 1980s. We apply the identification to examine investors’ responses to news from the Fed and key macro announcements. We uncover two risk-premium shocks—time-varying compensation for discount-rate and cash-flow news—which have distinct effects on stocks and bonds. Since the mid-1990s, the Fed-induced reductions in both risk premium sources have generated high average stock returns but an ambiguous response in bonds on FOMC days.

Suggested Citation

  • Anna Cieslak & Hao Pang, 2020. "Common Shocks in Stocks and Bonds," NBER Working Papers 28184, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:28184
    Note: AP ME
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    Cited by:

    1. Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Tho Pham & Oleksandr Talavera, 2023. "The Voice of Monetary Policy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 113(2), pages 548-584, February.
    2. Höynck, Christian & Rossi, Luca, 2023. "The drivers of market-based inflation expectations in the euro area and in the US," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 232(C).
    3. Bodilsen, Simon & Eriksen, Jonas N. & Grønborg, Niels S., 2021. "Asset pricing and FOMC press conferences," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    4. Piergiorgio Alessandri & Andrea Gazzani & Alejandro Vicondoa, 2021. "The real effects of financial uncertainty shocks: A daily identification approach," Working Papers 61, Red Nacional de Investigadores en Economía (RedNIE).
    5. Hanson, Samuel & Malkhozov, Aytek & Venter, Gyuri, 2022. "Demand-supply imbalance risk and long-term swap spreads," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 118868, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    6. Chao Ying, 2020. "The Pre-FOMC Announcement Drift and Private Information: Kyle Meets Macro-Finance," 2020 Papers pyi149, Job Market Papers.
    7. Don H. Kim & Marcelo Ochoa, 2021. "International Yield Spillovers," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2021-001, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

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