IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/jmp/jm2020/pyi149.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Pre-FOMC Announcement Drift and Private Information: Kyle Meets Macro-Finance

Author

Listed:
  • Chao Ying

Abstract

This paper proposes and tests the private information explanation for the time series of pre-FOMC announcement drift. I document the informed trading is in the same direction of the realized returns in the 24-hour window before FOMC announcements, coinciding with the pre-FOMC uncertainty reduction. I integrate Kyle's (1985) model into a standard consumption-based asset pricing framework where the market makers are compensated for the risk of assets' fundamentals. Observing aggregate order flow, they update the belief about the marginal utility-weighted asset value, which resolves uncertainty gradually and results in an upward drift in market prices before announcements. I demonstrate that there is a strictly positive pre-FOMC drift if and only if the market makers require risk compensation.

Suggested Citation

  • Chao Ying, 2020. "The Pre-FOMC Announcement Drift and Private Information: Kyle Meets Macro-Finance," 2020 Papers pyi149, Job Market Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:jmp:jm2020:pyi149
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ideas.repec.org/jmp/2020/pyi149.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mehra, Rajnish & Prescott, Edward C., 1985. "The equity premium: A puzzle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 145-161, March.
    2. Kurov, Alexander & Sancetta, Alessio & Strasser, Georg & Wolfe, Marketa Halova, 2019. "Price Drift Before U.S. Macroeconomic News: Private Information about Public Announcements?," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 54(1), pages 449-479, February.
    3. Back, Kerry & Pedersen, Hal, 1998. "Long-lived information and intraday patterns," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 1(3-4), pages 385-402, September.
    4. Campbell, John Y. & Sunderam, Adi & Viceira, Luis M., 2017. "Inflation Bets or Deflation Hedges? The Changing Risks of Nominal Bonds," Critical Finance Review, now publishers, vol. 6(2), pages 263-301, September.
    5. Péter Kondor & Gábor Pintér, 2022. "Clients' Connections: Measuring the Role of Private Information in Decentralized Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 77(1), pages 505-544, February.
    6. Hansen, Lars Peter & Jagannathan, Ravi, 1991. "Implications of Security Market Data for Models of Dynamic Economies," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(2), pages 225-262, April.
    7. Hengjie Ai & Ravi Bansal, 2018. "Risk Preferences and the Macroeconomic Announcement Premium," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 86(4), pages 1383-1430, July.
    8. Meulbroek, Lisa K, 1992. "An Empirical Analysis of Illegal Insider Trading," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(5), pages 1661-1699, December.
    9. Emi Nakamura & Jón Steinsson, 2018. "High-Frequency Identification of Monetary Non-Neutrality: The Information Effect," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 133(3), pages 1283-1330.
    10. Bryan Kelly & Alexander Ljungqvist, 2012. "Testing Asymmetric-Information Asset Pricing Models," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 25(5), pages 1366-1413.
    11. Praveen Sinha & Christopher Gadarowski, 2010. "The Efficacy of Regulation Fair Disclosure," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 45(2), pages 331-354, May.
    12. Holden, Craig W & Subrahmanyam, Avanidhar, 1992. "Long-Lived Private Information and Imperfect Competition," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(1), pages 247-270, March.
    13. Marek Jarociński & Peter Karadi, 2020. "Deconstructing Monetary Policy Surprises—The Role of Information Shocks," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 12(2), pages 1-43, April.
    14. David O. Lucca & Emanuel Moench, 2015. "The Pre-FOMC Announcement Drift," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 70(1), pages 329-371, February.
    15. Neuhierl, Andreas & Weber, Michael, 2019. "Monetary policy communication, policy slope, and the stock market," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 140-155.
    16. John Y. Campbell & Carolin Pflueger & Luis M. Viceira, 2020. "Macroeconomic Drivers of Bond and Equity Risks," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 128(8), pages 3148-3185.
    17. Cieslak, Anna & Pang, Hao, 2020. "Common shocks in stocks and bonds," CEPR Discussion Papers 14708, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    18. Subrahmanyam, Avanidhar, 1991. "Risk Aversion, Market Liquidity, and Price Efficiency," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 4(3), pages 416-441.
    19. Pierre Collin-Dufresne & Vyacheslav Fos, 2015. "Do Prices Reveal the Presence of Informed Trading?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 70(4), pages 1555-1582, August.
    20. Farshid Abdi & Botao Wu, 2018. "Informed Corporate Credit Market Before Monetary Policy Surprises: Explaining Pre-FOMC Stock Market Movements," Working Papers on Finance 1828, University of St. Gallen, School of Finance.
    21. Keown, Arthur J & Pinkerton, John M, 1981. "Merger Announcements and Insider Trading Activity: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 36(4), pages 855-869, September.
    22. Kerry Back & Kevin Crotty & Tao Li, 2018. "Identifying Information Asymmetry in Securities Markets," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 31(6), pages 2277-2325.
    23. Back, Kerry E., 2017. "Asset Pricing and Portfolio Choice Theory," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780190241148.
    24. RenÈ Caldentey & Ennio Stacchetti, 2010. "Insider Trading With a Random Deadline," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 78(1), pages 245-283, January.
    25. Baruch, Shmuel, 2002. "Insider trading and risk aversion," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 5(4), pages 451-464, October.
    26. Jessica A. Wachter & Yicheng Zhu, 2018. "The Macroeconomic Announcement Premium," NBER Working Papers 24432, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    27. Kerry Back & C. Henry Cao & Gregory A. Willard, 2000. "Imperfect Competition among Informed Traders," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(5), pages 2117-2155, October.
    28. Jordan Brooks & Michael Katz & Hanno Lustig, 2018. "Post-FOMC Announcement Drift in U.S. Bond Markets," NBER Working Papers 25127, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    29. Kyle, Albert S, 1985. "Continuous Auctions and Insider Trading," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(6), pages 1315-1335, November.
    30. Pierre Collin-Dufresne & Vyacheslav Fos, 2013. "Do Prices Reveal the Presence of Informed Trading?," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 13-69, Swiss Finance Institute, revised Sep 2015.
    31. Back, Kerry, 1992. "Insider Trading in Continuous Time," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 5(3), pages 387-409.
    32. Anna Cieslak & Hao Pang, 2020. "Common Shocks in Stocks and Bonds," NBER Working Papers 28184, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    33. Jarrell, Gregg A & Poulsen, Annette B, 1989. "Stock Trading before the Announcement of Tender Offers: Insider Trading or Market Anticipation?," The Journal of Law, Economics, and Organization, Oxford University Press, vol. 5(2), pages 225-248, Fall.
    34. Anna Agapova & Jeff Madura, 2011. "Information Leakage Prior to Company Issued Guidance," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 40(3), pages 623-646, September.
    35. Bernile, Gennaro & Hu, Jianfeng & Tang, Yuehua, 2016. "Can information be locked up? Informed trading ahead of macro-news announcements," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 121(3), pages 496-520.
    36. Foster, F Douglas & Viswanathan, S, 1996. "Strategic Trading When Agents Forecast the Forecasts of Others," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(4), pages 1437-1478, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Ibrahim Ekren & Brad Mostowski & Gordan v{Z}itkovi'c, 2022. "Kyle's Model with Stochastic Liquidity," Papers 2204.11069, arXiv.org.
    2. Han, Jinhui & Li, Xiaolong & Ma, Guiyuan & Kennedy, Adrian Patrick, 2023. "Strategic trading with information acquisition and long-memory stochastic liquidity," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 308(1), pages 480-495.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Dimitri Vayanos & Jiang Wang, 2012. "Market Liquidity -- Theory and Empirical Evidence," NBER Working Papers 18251, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Vayanos, Dimitri & Wang, Jiang, 2013. "Market Liquidity—Theory and Empirical Evidence ," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, in: G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Finance, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1289-1361, Elsevier.
    3. Baruch, Shmuel & Panayides, Marios & Venkataraman, Kumar, 2017. "Informed trading and price discovery before corporate events," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 125(3), pages 561-588.
    4. Lof, Matthijs & van Bommel, Jos, 2023. "Asymmetric information and the distribution of trading volume," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    5. Umut c{C}et{i}n, 2018. "Mathematics of Market Microstructure under Asymmetric Information," Papers 1809.03885, arXiv.org.
    6. Sastry, Ravi & Thompson, Rex, 2019. "Strategic trading with risk aversion and information flow," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 1-16.
    7. Acharya, Viral V. & Johnson, Timothy C., 2010. "More insiders, more insider trading: Evidence from private-equity buyouts," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(3), pages 500-523, December.
    8. Umut c{C}etin & Albina Danilova, 2014. "Markovian Nash equilibrium in financial markets with asymmetric information and related forward-backward systems," Papers 1407.2420, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2016.
    9. Lof, Matthijs & Bommel, Jos van, 2018. "Asymmetric information and the distribution of trading volume," Research Discussion Papers 1, Bank of Finland.
    10. repec:zbw:bofrdp:001 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Pierre Collin‐Dufresne & Vyacheslav Fos, 2016. "Insider Trading, Stochastic Liquidity, and Equilibrium Prices," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 84(4), pages 1441-1475, July.
    12. Katsumasa Nishide, 2009. "Insider trading with correlation between liquidity trading and a public signal," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(3), pages 297-304.
    13. Shreya Bose & Ibrahim Ekren, 2021. "Multidimensional Kyle-Back model with a risk averse informed trader," Papers 2111.01957, arXiv.org.
    14. Çetin, Umut & Danilova, Albina, 2016. "Markovian Nash equilibrium in financial markets with asymmetric information and related forward-backward systems," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 63259, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    15. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2018_001 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Ibrahim Ekren & Brad Mostowski & Gordan v{Z}itkovi'c, 2022. "Kyle's Model with Stochastic Liquidity," Papers 2204.11069, arXiv.org.
    17. Dan Bernhardt & P. Seiler & B. Taub, 2010. "Speculative dynamics," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 44(1), pages 1-52, July.
    18. Reda Chhaibi & Ibrahim Ekren & Eunjung Noh & Lu Vy, 2022. "A unified approach to informed trading via Monge-Kantorovich duality," Papers 2210.17384, arXiv.org.
    19. Qin Lei & Xuewu Wang, 2014. "Time†Varying Liquidity Trading, Private Information and Insider Trading," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 20(2), pages 321-351, March.
    20. Gong, Aibo & Ke, Shaowei & Qiu, Yawen & Shen, Rui, 2022. "Robust pricing under strategic trading," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 199(C).
    21. Bodilsen, Simon & Eriksen, Jonas N. & Grønborg, Niels S., 2021. "Asset pricing and FOMC press conferences," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    22. Fabrice Rousseau & Hervé Boco & Laurent Germain, 2015. "Heterogeneous Beliefs and Imperfect Competition in Sequential Auction Markets," Economics Department Working Paper Series n258-15.pdf, Department of Economics, National University of Ireland - Maynooth.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:jmp:jm2020:pyi149. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: RePEc Team (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://ideas.repec.org/jmp.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.