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Why Does Stock Market Volatility Change Over Time?

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  • G. William Schwert

Abstract

This paper analyzes the relation of stock volatility with real and nominal macroeconomic volatility, financial leverage, stock trading activity, default risk, and firm profitability using monthly data from 1857-1986. An important fact, previously noted by Officer [l973], is that stock return variability was unusually high during the 1929-1940 Great Depression. Moreover, leverage has a relatively small effect on stock volatility. The amplitude of the fluctuations in aggregate stock volatility is difficult to explain using simple models of stock valuation.

Suggested Citation

  • G. William Schwert, 1988. "Why Does Stock Market Volatility Change Over Time?," NBER Working Papers 2798, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:2798
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    Cited by:

    1. West, Kenneth D. & Cho, Dongchul, 1995. "The predictive ability of several models of exchange rate volatility," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 69(2), pages 367-391, October.
    2. Victor Olkhov, 2021. "Three Remarks On Asset Pricing," Papers 2105.13903, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2024.
    3. Kenneth A. Froot & Andre F. Perold & Jeremy C. Stein, 1992. "Shareholder Trading Practices And Corporate Investment Horizons," Journal of Applied Corporate Finance, Morgan Stanley, vol. 5(2), pages 42-58, June.
    4. Schwert, G William & Seguin, Paul J, 1990. "Heteroskedasticity in Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(4), pages 1129-1155, September.
    5. Pagan, Adrian R. & Schwert, G. William, 1990. "Alternative models for conditional stock volatility," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1-2), pages 267-290.
    6. Paul D. McNelis, 1993. "The Response of Australian Stock, Foreign Exchange and Bond Markets to Foreign Asset Returns and Volatilities," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp9301, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    7. Hou, Yang & Li, Steven, 2014. "The impact of the CSI 300 stock index futures: Positive feedback trading and autocorrelation of stock returns," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 319-337.
    8. Olkhov, Victor, 2020. "Price, Volatility and the Second-Order Economic Theory," MPRA Paper 102767, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Schwert, G.W., 1989. "Indexes Of United States Stock Prices From 1802-1987," Papers 89-04, Rochester, Business - General.
    10. Rita De Siano, 2000. "Financial Variables As Leading Indicators: An Application To The G7 Countries," Working Papers 6_2000, D.E.S. (Department of Economic Studies), University of Naples "Parthenope", Italy.
    11. Miron, Jeffrey A. & Romer, Christina D., 1990. "A New Monthly Index of Industrial Production, 1884–1940," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 50(2), pages 321-337, June.
    12. King, Daniel & Botha, Ferdi, 2015. "Modelling stock return volatility dynamics in selected African markets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 50-73.
    13. Michael McKenzie & Heather Mitchell & Robert Brooks & Robert Faff, 2001. "Power ARCH modelling of commodity futures data on the London Metal Exchange," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(1), pages 22-38.
    14. Peter Reinhard Hansen & Asger Lunde & James M. Nason, 2003. "Choosing the Best Volatility Models: The Model Confidence Set Approach," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 65(s1), pages 839-861, December.
    15. David Greasley & Jakob B. Madsen, 2006. "Investment and Uncertainty: Precipitating the Great Depression in the United States," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 73(291), pages 393-412, August.
    16. George Kouretas & Leonidas Zarangas, 2005. "Conditional autoregressive valu at risk by regression quantile: Estimatingmarket risk for major stock markets," Working Papers 0521, University of Crete, Department of Economics.
    17. Swee Ling OH & Evan LAU & Chin Hong PUAH & Shazali ABU MANSOR, 2010. "Volatility Co Movement Of Asean 5 Equity Markets," Journal of Advanced Studies in Finance, ASERS Publishing, vol. 1(1), pages 23-30.
    18. Matthew C. Li, 2014. "The US zero-coupon yield spread as a predictor of excess daily stock market volatility," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(13), pages 889-906, July.
    19. Lennart Hoogerheide & Anne Opschoor & Herman K. van Dijk, 2011. "A Class of Adaptive EM-based Importance Sampling Algorithms for Efficient and Robust Posterior and Predictive Simulation," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 11-004/4, Tinbergen Institute.
    20. Peter Koudijs, 2013. "The boats that did not sail: Asset Price Volatility and Market Efficiency in a Natural Experiment," NBER Working Papers 18831, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    21. Francois Gourio, 2012. "Disaster Risk and Business Cycles," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(6), pages 2734-2766, October.
    22. Filiz Eryilmaz, 2015. "Modelling Stock Market Volatility: The Case Of Bist-100," Annals - Economy Series, Constantin Brancusi University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 5, pages 37-47, October.
    23. Nicolas de Roos & Bill Russell, 1996. "Towards an Understanding of Australia’s Co-movement with Foreign Business Cycles," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp9607, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    24. Wang, Yuanfang & Roberts, Matthew C., 2005. "Realized Volatility in the Agricultural Futures Market," 2005 Annual meeting, July 24-27, Providence, RI 19211, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    25. Patrick Artus, 1990. "Spéculateurs hétérogènes et chocs monétaires," Revue Économique, Programme National Persée, vol. 41(5), pages 895-922.

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