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Low Interest Rates, Policy, and the Predictive Content of the Yield Curve

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  • Michael D. Bordo
  • Joseph G. Haubrich

Abstract

Does the yield curve's ability to predict future output and recessions differ when interest rates are low, as in the current global environment? In this paper we build on recent econometric work by Shi, Phillips and Hurn that detects changes in the causal impact of the yield curve and relate that to the level of interest rates. We explore the issue using historical data going back to the 19th century for the US and more recent data for the UK, Germany, and Japan. This paper is similar in spirit to Ramey and Zubairy (2018) who look at the government spending multiplier in times of low interest rates.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael D. Bordo & Joseph G. Haubrich, 2020. "Low Interest Rates, Policy, and the Predictive Content of the Yield Curve," NBER Working Papers 27691, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:27691
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Luca Benati, 2008. "Investigating Inflation Persistence Across Monetary Regimes," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 123(3), pages 1005-1060.
    2. Ang, Andrew & Piazzesi, Monika & Wei, Min, 2006. "What does the yield curve tell us about GDP growth?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 131(1-2), pages 359-403.
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    Cited by:

    1. Petri Kuosmanen & Juuso Vataja, 2025. "Predictive Power of Key Financial Variables During the Unconventional Monetary Policy Era," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 44(3), pages 856-866, April.
    2. Bordo, Michael D. & Haubrich, Joseph G., 2022. "Some international evidence on the causal impact of the yield curve," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 45(C).

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • N10 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - General, International, or Comparative

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