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Commodity Prices as a Leading Indicator of Inflation

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  • James M. Boughton
  • William H. Branson

Abstract

This paper studies the value of broad commodity price indexes as predictors of consumer price inflation in the G-7 industrial countries. After an introduction, the paper discusses the theoretical relationship between commodity and consumer prices and the conditions under which, in general, one would expect commodity prices to be a leading indicator of inflation. It then presents tests of the relationships between conventional broad indexes of commodity prices and consumer prices, and uses the data on individual commodities to generate the optimum weights in a commodity price index for forecasting G-7 inflation. We find that commodity and consumer prices are not co-integrated; the hypothesis that there is a reliable long-run relationship between the level of commodity prices and the level of consumer prices may be rejected. There is a tendency for changes in commodity prices to lead those in consumer prices, at least when the data are denominated in a broad index of major-country currencies. However, although the inclusion of commodity prices significantly improves the in-sample fit of regressions of an aggregate (multi-country) consumer price index, the results may not be sufficiently stable to improve post-sample forecasts. Estimated alternative commodity price indexes, in which the weights are chosen so as to minimize the residual variance in aggregate inflation regressions, track the behavior of the aggregate CPI reasonably well in-sample. However, the estimated indexes work only moderately well in post-sample predictions, and they do not appear to offer significant advantages over the conventional export weighted index. Perhaps the most important result is that turning points in commodity-price inflation frequently precede turning points in consumer-price inflation for the large industrial countries as a group.

Suggested Citation

  • James M. Boughton & William H. Branson, 1988. "Commodity Prices as a Leading Indicator of Inflation," NBER Working Papers 2750, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:2750
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    Cited by:

    1. Michael Coelli & Jerome Fahrer, 1992. "Indicators of Inflationary Pressure," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp9207, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    2. Michael J. Dueker, 2002. "The monetary policy innovation paradox in VARs: a \\"discrete\\" explanation," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 84(Mar.), pages 43-50.
    3. Tazwell S. Rowe & Roy H. Webb, 1995. "An index of leading indicators for inflation," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Spr, pages 75-96.
    4. Voormolen, J.A. & Junginger, H.M. & van Sark, W.G.J.H.M., 2016. "Unravelling historical cost developments of offshore wind energy in Europe," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 435-444.
    5. Afees A. Salisu & Raymond Swaray & Hadiza Sa'id, 2021. "Improving forecasting accuracy of the Phillips curve in OECD countries: The role of commodity prices," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(2), pages 2946-2975, April.
    6. Jacob A. Frenkel & Morris Goldstein & Paul R. Masson, 2017. "The Rationale for, and Effects of, International Economic Policy Coordination," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: TRADE CURRENCIES AND FINANCE, chapter 7, pages 241-298, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    7. Walter C. Labys & Alfred Maizels, 1990. "Commodity Price Fluctuations and Macro-economic Adjustments in the Developed Countries," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-1990-088, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    8. Frederick T. Furlong & Robert Ingenito, 1996. "Commodity prices and inflation," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, pages 27-47.
    9. Thomas M Fullerton Jr & Richard A Hirth & Mark B Smith, 2004. "Inflationary Dynamics and the Angell-Johnson Proposals," Macroeconomics 0409009, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Njoupouognigni Moussa & Ndambendia Houdou, 2021. "Commodity Price Changes and Domestic Inflation in the CEMAC Zone: Evidence from Panel Cointegration," International Journal of Economics and Finance, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 13(5), pages 1-93, May.
    11. Michael S. Hanson, 2004. "Monetary Factors in the Long-Run Co-movement of Consumer and Commodity Prices," Wesleyan Economics Working Papers 2004-001, Wesleyan University, Department of Economics.
    12. Afees A. Salisu & Raymond Swaray & Idris Adediran, 2018. "Improving the predictability of commodity prices in US inflation: The role of coffee price," Working Papers 041, Centre for Econometric and Allied Research, University of Ibadan.

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