IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nbr/nberwo/26672.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

In Praise of Confidence Intervals

Author

Listed:
  • David Romer

Abstract

Most empirical papers in economics focus on two aspects of their results: whether the estimates are statistically significantly different from zero and the interpretation of the point estimates. This focus obscures important information about the implications of the results for economically interesting hypotheses about values of the parameters other than zero, and in some cases, about the strength of the evidence against values of zero. This limitation can be overcome by reporting confidence intervals for papers’ main estimates and discussing their economic interpretation.

Suggested Citation

  • David Romer, 2020. "In Praise of Confidence Intervals," NBER Working Papers 26672, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:26672
    Note: EFG LS ME
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w26672.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Gabriel Chodorow-Reich, 2019. "Geographic Cross-Sectional Fiscal Spending Multipliers: What Have We Learned?," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 11(2), pages 1-34, May.
    2. Card, David, 2001. "Estimating the Return to Schooling: Progress on Some Persistent Econometric Problems," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(5), pages 1127-1160, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Mohd. Imran Khan & Pallavi Wats & Jannet Jacob Farida, 2023. "Gender Differences in Returns to Self-employment in India," The Indian Journal of Labour Economics, Springer;The Indian Society of Labour Economics (ISLE), vol. 66(1), pages 239-266, March.
    2. Antoine Bozio & Clémentine Garrouste & Elsa Perdrix, 2021. "Impact of later retirement on mortality: Evidence from France," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(5), pages 1178-1199, May.
    3. Kyle Rozema, 2021. "Does the Bar Exam Protect the Public?," Journal of Empirical Legal Studies, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 18(4), pages 801-848, December.
    4. Voxi Heinrich Amavilah & Antonio Rodríguez Andrés, 2024. "Knowledge Economy and the Economic Performance of African Countries: A Seemingly Unrelated and Recursive Approach," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 15(1), pages 110-143, March.
    5. Uwe Hassler & Marc‐Oliver Pohle, 2022. "Unlucky Number 13? Manipulating Evidence Subject to Snooping," International Statistical Review, International Statistical Institute, vol. 90(2), pages 397-410, August.
    6. Bagilet, Vincent & Zabrocki-Hallak, Léo, 2022. "Why Some Acute Health Effects of Air Pollution Could Be Inflated," I4R Discussion Paper Series 11, The Institute for Replication (I4R).
    7. Kindsgrab, Paul M., 2022. "Do higher income taxes on top earners trickle down? A local labor markets approach," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 214(C).
    8. Elbert Dijkgraaf & Raymond Gradus, 2021. "Are Bottle Banks Sufficiently Effective for Increasing Glass Recycling Rates?," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(17), pages 1-11, August.
    9. Fidjeland, Andreas & Rege, Mari & Solli, Ingeborg F. & Størksen, Ingunn, 2023. "Reducing the gender gap in early learning: Evidence from a field experiment in Norwegian preschools," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
    10. Thomas Lebesmuehlbacher & Rhet A. Smith, 2021. "The effect of medical cannabis laws on pharmaceutical marketing to physicians," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(10), pages 2409-2436, September.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ma, Lingjie & Koenker, Roger, 2006. "Quantile regression methods for recursive structural equation models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 134(2), pages 471-506, October.
    2. González-Uribe, Juanita & Reyes, Santiago, 2021. "Identifying and boosting “Gazelles”: Evidence from business accelerators," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 139(1), pages 260-287.
    3. Patricio S Dalton & Victor H Gonzalez Jimenez & Charles N Noussair, 2017. "Exposure to Poverty and Productivity," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 12(1), pages 1-19, January.
    4. Achim Truger, 2015. "Implementing the golden rule for public investment in Europe," Working Paper Reihe der AK Wien - Materialien zu Wirtschaft und Gesellschaft 138, Kammer für Arbeiter und Angestellte für Wien, Abteilung Wirtschaftswissenschaft und Statistik.
    5. Qing Li & Long Hai Vo, 2021. "Intangible Capital and Innovation: An Empirical Analysis of Vietnamese Enterprises," Economics Discussion / Working Papers 21-02, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics.
    6. Ay, Jean-Sauveur & Le Gallo, Julie, 2021. "The Signaling Values of Nested Wine Names," Working Papers 321851, American Association of Wine Economists.
    7. Uwe Sunde & Thomas Dohmen & Benjamin Enke & Armin Falkbriq & David Huffman & Gerrit Meyerheim, 2022. "Patience and Comparative Development," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 89(5), pages 2806-2840.
    8. Resul Cesur & Naci H. Mocan, 2013. "Does Secular Education Impact Religiosity, Electoral Participation and the Propensity to Vote for Islamic Parties? Evidence from an Education Reform in a Muslim Country," NBER Working Papers 19769, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Georg Feigl & Markus Marterbauer & Miriam Rehm & Matthias Schnetzer & Sepp Zuckerstätter & Lars Nørvang Andersen & Thea Nissen & Signe Dahl & Peter Hohlfeld & Benjamin Lojak & Achim Truger & Andrew Wa, 2016. "The Elusive Recovery," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03459084, HAL.
      • Georg Feigl & Markus Marterbauer & Miriam Rehm & Matthias Schnetzer & Sepp Zuckerstätter & Lars Nørvang Andersen & Thea Nissen & Signe Dahl & Peter Hohlfeld & Benjamin Lojak & Achim Truger & Andrew Wa, 2016. "The Elusive Recovery," PSE-Ecole d'économie de Paris (Postprint) hal-03459084, HAL.
      • Georg Feigl & Markus Marterbauer & Miriam Rehm & Matthias Schnetzer & Sepp Zuckerstätter & Lars Nørvang Andersen & Thea Nissen & Signe Dahl & Peter Hohlfeld & Benjamin Lojak & Thomas Theobald & Achim , 2016. "The Elusive Recovery," PSE Working Papers hal-03612850, HAL.
      • Georg Feigl & Markus Marterbauer & Miriam Rehm & Matthias Schnetzer & Sepp Zuckerstätter & Lars Nørvang Andersen & Thea Nissen & Signe Dahl & Peter Hohlfeld & Benjamin Lojak & Achim Truger & Andrew Wa, 2016. "The Elusive Recovery," Post-Print hal-03459084, HAL.
      • Georg Feigl & Markus Marterbauer & Miriam Rehm & Matthias Schnetzer & Sepp Zuckerstätter & Lars Nørvang Andersen & Thea Nissen & Signe Dahl & Peter Hohlfeld & Benjamin Lojak & Thomas Theobald & Achim , 2016. "The Elusive Recovery," Working Papers hal-03612850, HAL.
      • Georg Feigl & Markus Marterbauer & Miriam Rehm & Matthias Schnetzer & Sepp Zuckerstätter & Lars Nørvang Andersen & Thea Nissen & Signe Dahl & Peter Hohlfeld & Benjamin Lojak & Thomas Theobald & Achim , 2016. "The Elusive Recovery," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03612850, HAL.
      • Georg Feigl & Markus Marterbauer & Miriam Rehm & Matthias Schnetzer & Sepp Zuckerstätter & Lars Nørvang Andersen & Thea Nissen & Signe Dahl & Peter Hohlfeld & Benjamin Lojak & Thomas Theobald & Achim , 2016. "The Elusive Recovery," PSE-Ecole d'économie de Paris (Postprint) hal-03612850, HAL.
    10. Gernandt, Johannes & Maier, Michael & Pfeiffer, Friedhelm & Rat-Wirtzler, Julie, 2006. "Distributional effects of the high school degree in Germany," ZEW Discussion Papers 06-088, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    11. Harmon, Colm & Hogan, Vincent & Walker, Ian, 2003. "Dispersion in the economic return to schooling," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 205-214, April.
    12. Bolzern, Benjamin & Huber, Martin, 2017. "Testing the validity of the compulsory schooling law instrument," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 159(C), pages 23-27.
    13. Maria Coelho, 2019. "Fiscal Stimulus in a Monetary Union: Evidence from Eurozone Regions," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 67(3), pages 573-617, September.
    14. Peter Z. Schochet & Ronald D'Amico & Jillian Berk & Sarah Dolfin & Nathan Wozny, "undated". "Estimated Impacts for Participants in the Trade Adjustment Assistance (TAA) Program Under the 2002 Amendments," Mathematica Policy Research Reports 582d8723f6884d4eb7a3f95a4, Mathematica Policy Research.
    15. Eve Caroli & Mathilde Godard, 2016. "Does job insecurity deteriorate health?," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(2), pages 131-147, February.
    16. James Cloyne & Òscar Jordà & Alan M. Taylor, 2020. "Decomposing the Fiscal Multiplier," Working Paper Series 2020-12, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    17. Gregorio Caetano & Miguel Palacios & Harry A. Patrinos, 2019. "Measuring Aversion to Debt: An Experiment Among Student Loan Candidates," Journal of Family and Economic Issues, Springer, vol. 40(1), pages 117-131, March.
    18. Saïd Hanchane & Abraham Lioui & David Touahri, 2006. "Human capital as a risky asset and the effect of uncertainty on the decision to invest," Working Papers halshs-00010139, HAL.
    19. Hai-Anh H. Dang & Trung X. Hoang & Ha Nguyen, 2021. "The Long-Run and Gender-Equalizing Impacts of School Access: Evidence from the First Indochina War," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 70(1), pages 453-484.
    20. John B. Burbidge & Kirk A. Collins & James B. Davies & Lonnie Magee, 2012. "Effective tax and subsidy rates on human capital in Canada," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 45(1), pages 189-219, February.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C10 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - General
    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:26672. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/nberrus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.