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Technological Progress and Health Convergence: The Case of Penicillin in Post-War Italy

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  • Marcella Alsan
  • Vincenzo Atella
  • Jay Bhattacharya
  • Valentina Conti
  • Iván Mejía-Guevara
  • Grant Miller

Abstract

Throughout history, technological progress has transformed population health, but the distributional effects of these gains are unclear. New substitutes for older, more expensive health technologies can produce convergence in population health outcomes, but may also be prone to “elite capture” leading to divergence. This paper studies the case of penicillin using detailed mortality statistics and exploiting its sharply-timed introduction in Italy after World War II. We find penicillin reduced both the mean and standard deviation of infectious diseases mortality, leading to substantial convergence across disparate regions of Italy. Our results do not appear to be confounded by competing risks or mortality patterns associated with World War II.

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  • Marcella Alsan & Vincenzo Atella & Jay Bhattacharya & Valentina Conti & Iván Mejía-Guevara & Grant Miller, 2019. "Technological Progress and Health Convergence: The Case of Penicillin in Post-War Italy," NBER Working Papers 25541, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:25541
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    1. Väinö Kannisto, 2000. "Measuring the compression of mortality," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 3(6).
    2. Seema Jayachandran & Adriana Lleras-Muney & Kimberly V. Smith, 2010. "Modern Medicine and the Twentieth Century Decline in Mortality: Evidence on the Impact of Sulfa Drugs," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 2(2), pages 118-146, April.
    3. Daron Acemoglu & Simon Johnson, 2007. "Disease and Development: The Effect of Life Expectancy on Economic Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 115(6), pages 925-985, December.
    4. Vecchi, Giovanni, 2017. "Measuring Wellbeing: A History of Italian Living Standards," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199944590.
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    Cited by:

    1. Anderson, D. Mark & Charles, Kerwin Kofi & Rees, Daniel I. & Wang, Tianyi, 2021. "Water purification efforts and the black‐white infant mortality gap, 1906–1938," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • I10 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - General
    • J10 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - General
    • N00 - Economic History - - General - - - General

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