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What can we Learn from Euro-Dollar Tweets?

Author

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  • Vahid Gholampour
  • Eric van Wincoop

Abstract

We use 633 days of tweets about the Euro/dollar exchange rate to determine their information content and the profitability of trading based on Twitter Sentiment. We develop a detailed lexicon used by FX traders to translate verbal tweets into positive, negative and neutral opinions. The methodologically novel aspect of our approach is the use of a model with heterogeneous private information to interpret the data from FX tweets. After estimating model parameters, we compute the Sharpe ratio from a trading strategy based on Twitter Sentiment. The Sharpe ratio outperforms that based on the well-known carry trade and is precisely estimated.

Suggested Citation

  • Vahid Gholampour & Eric van Wincoop, 2017. "What can we Learn from Euro-Dollar Tweets?," NBER Working Papers 23293, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:23293
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    Cited by:

    1. Charles W. Calomiris & Harry Mamaysky, 2019. "Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Returns: Time-Varying Risk Regimes," NBER Working Papers 25714, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Michael Stiefel & Rémi Vivès, 2019. "'Whatever it Takes' to Change Belief: Evidence from Twitter," Working Papers halshs-02053429, HAL.
    3. Reboredo, Juan C. & Ugolini, Andrea, 2018. "The impact of Twitter sentiment on renewable energy stocks," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 153-169.
    4. Michael Stiefel & Rémi Vivès, 2022. "‘Whatever it takes’ to change belief: evidence from Twitter," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 158(3), pages 715-747, August.
    5. Zhang, Qisi & Frömmel, Michael & Baidoo, Edwin, 2024. "Donald Trump's tweets, political value judgment, and the Renminbi exchange rate," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).
    6. Tao Chen & Erin P. K. So & Isabel K. M. Yan, 2021. "Are crises sentimental?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(1), pages 962-985, January.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

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