IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nbr/nberwo/23141.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Keynes and the Dollar in 1933

Author

Listed:
  • Sebastian Edwards

Abstract

On December 1933, John Maynard Keyes published an open letter to President Roosevelt, where he wrote: “The recent gyrations of the dollar have looked to me more like a gold standard on the booze than the ideal managed currency of my dreams.” In this paper I use high frequency data to investigate whether the gyrations of the dollar were unusually high throughout this period. My results show that although volatility was pronounced, it was not higher than during October 1931- July 1933. I analyze Keynes writings on the international monetary system in an effort to understand what he meant in his letter. I compare Keynes’s “The means to prosperity” with James P. Warburg’s plan for a “modified international standard.”

Suggested Citation

  • Sebastian Edwards, 2017. "Keynes and the Dollar in 1933," NBER Working Papers 23141, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:23141
    Note: DAE IFM
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w23141.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Michael D. Bordo & Alan M. Taylor & Jeffrey G. Williamson, 2003. "Globalization in Historical Perspective," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number bord03-1, February.
    2. Benn Steil, 2013. "The Battle of Bretton Woods: John Maynard Keynes, Harry Dexter White, and the Making of a New World Order," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 9925.
    3. Kris James Mitchener & Marc D. Weidenmier, 2009. "Are Hard Pegs Ever Credible in Emerging Markets? Evidence from the Classical Gold Standard," NBER Working Papers 15401, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Hansen, Bruce E, 1996. "Erratum: The Likelihood Ratio Test under Nonstandard Conditions: Testing the Markov Switching Model of GNP," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(2), pages 195-198, March-Apr.
    5. Michael Bordo & Arunima Sinha, 2016. "A Lesson from the Great Depression that the Fed Might have Learned: A Comparison of the 1932 Open Market Purchases with Quantitative Easing," NBER Working Papers 22581, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Hansen, Bruce E, 1992. "The Likelihood Ratio Test under Nonstandard Conditions: Testing the Markov Switching Model of GNP," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 7(S), pages 61-82, Suppl. De.
    7. Hamilton, James D. & Susmel, Raul, 1994. "Autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity and changes in regime," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 64(1-2), pages 307-333.
    8. Michael D. Bordo & Alan M. Taylor & Jeffrey G. Williamson, 2003. "Introduction to "Globalization in Historical Perspective"," NBER Chapters, in: Globalization in Historical Perspective, pages 1-10, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Sebastian Edwards, 2017. "The London Monetary and Economic Conference of 1933 and the End of the Great Depression," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 28(3), pages 431-459, July.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Charlotte Christiansen, 2004. "Regime switching in the yield curve," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(4), pages 315-336, April.
    2. Chevallier, Julien, 2011. "Evaluating the carbon-macroeconomy relationship: Evidence from threshold vector error-correction and Markov-switching VAR models," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 2634-2656.
    3. Ming-Yuan Leon Li & Chun-Nan Chen, 2010. "Examining the interrelation dynamics between option and stock markets using the Markov-switching vector error correction model," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(7), pages 1173-1191.
    4. Mustafa Caglayan & Ozge Kandemir & Kostas Mouratidis, 2011. "Real effects of inflation uncertainty in the US," Working Papers 2011002, The University of Sheffield, Department of Economics, revised Feb 2015.
    5. Benito, Francis & Leon, Angel & Nave, Juan, 2007. "Modeling the Euro overnight rate," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(5), pages 756-782, December.
    6. Shyh-Wei Chen & Nai-Chuan Huang, 2007. "Estimates of the ICAPM with regime-switching betas: evidence from four pacific rim economies," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(4), pages 313-327.
    7. Shyh-Wei Chen, 2010. "Testing the hypothesis of market efficiency in the Taiwan-US forward exchange market since 1990," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(1), pages 121-132.
    8. LeBaron, Blake, 2003. "Non-Linear Time Series Models in Empirical Finance,: Philip Hans Franses and Dick van Dijk, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 2000, 296 pp., Paperback, ISBN 0-521-77965-0, $33, [UK pound]22.95, [," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 751-752.
    9. Yue-Jun Zhang & Ting Yao & Ling-Yun He, 2015. "Forecasting crude oil market volatility: can the Regime Switching GARCH model beat the single-regime GARCH models?," Papers 1512.01676, arXiv.org.
    10. Jean-Marie Dufour & Richard Luger, 2017. "Identification-robust moment-based tests for Markov switching in autoregressive models," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(6-9), pages 713-727, October.
    11. Arielle Beyaert & Juan Jose Perez-Castejon, 2009. "Markov-switching models, rational expectations and the term structure of interest rates," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(3), pages 399-412.
    12. Philip Arestis & Kostas Mouratidis, 2004. "Credibility of European Monetary System Interest Rate Policies: A Markov Regime‐Switching Approach," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 72(1), pages 1-23, January.
    13. Ming‐yuan leon Li, 2009. "Change In Volatility Regimes And Diversification In Emerging Stock Markets," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 77(1), pages 59-80, March.
    14. Perez-Quiros, Gabriel & Timmermann, Allan, 2001. "Business cycle asymmetries in stock returns: Evidence from higher order moments and conditional densities," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 103(1-2), pages 259-306, July.
    15. Lee, Hwa-Taek & Yoon, Gawon, 2007. "Does Purchasing Power Parity Hold Sometimes? Regime Switching in Real Exchange Rates," Economics Working Papers 2007-24, Christian-Albrechts-University of Kiel, Department of Economics.
    16. Kiyotaka Satoyoshi & Hidetoshi Mitsui, 2011. "Empirical Study of Nikkei 225 Options with the Markov Switching GARCH Model," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 18(1), pages 55-68, March.
    17. Zhang, Yue-Jun & Yao, Ting & He, Ling-Yun & Ripple, Ronald, 2019. "Volatility forecasting of crude oil market: Can the regime switching GARCH model beat the single-regime GARCH models?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 302-317.
    18. Hwa-Taek Lee & Gawon Yoon, 2013. "Does purchasing power parity hold sometimes? Regime switching in real exchange rates," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(16), pages 2279-2294, June.
    19. Chevallier, Julien, 2011. "A model of carbon price interactions with macroeconomic and energy dynamics," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(6), pages 1295-1312.
    20. Ruijun Bu & Jie Cheng & Fredj Jawadi, 2022. "A latent‐factor‐driven endogenous regime‐switching non‐Gaussian model: Evidence from simulation and application," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(4), pages 3881-3896, October.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • B22 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - History of Economic Thought since 1925 - - - Macroeconomics
    • B26 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - History of Economic Thought since 1925 - - - Financial Economics
    • B3 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - History of Economic Thought: Individuals
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • N22 - Economic History - - Financial Markets and Institutions - - - U.S.; Canada: 1913-

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:23141. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/nberrus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.