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Agro-Ecosystem Productivity and the Dynamic Response to Shocks

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  • Jean-Paul Chavas

Abstract

This paper investigates the nonlinear dynamic response to shocks, relying on a threshold quantile autoregression (TQAR) model as a flexible representation of stochastic dynamics. The TQAR model can identify zones of stability/instability and characterize resilience and traps. Resilience means high odds of escaping from undesirable zones of instability toward zones that are more desirable and stable. Traps mean low odds of escaping from zones that are both undesirable and stable. The approach is illustrated in an application to the dynamics of productivity applied to historical data on wheat yield in Kansas over the period 1885-2012. The dynamics of this agroecosystem and its response to shocks are of interest as Kansas agriculture faced major droughts, including the catastrophic Dust Bowl of the 1930’s. The analysis identifies a zone of instability in the presence of successive adverse shocks. It also finds evidence of resilience. We associate the resilience with induced innovations in management and policy in response to adverse shocks.

Suggested Citation

  • Jean-Paul Chavas, 2016. "Agro-Ecosystem Productivity and the Dynamic Response to Shocks," NBER Working Papers 22624, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:22624
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    Cited by:

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    2. Knippenberg, Erwin & Jensen, Nathaniel D. & Constas, Mark A., 2017. "Measuring Resilience in Malawi," 2017 Annual Meeting, July 30-August 1, Chicago, Illinois 258229, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • O13 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Agriculture; Natural Resources; Environment; Other Primary Products
    • O3 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights
    • Q1 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture

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