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The Welfare Cost of Retirement Uncertainty

Author

Listed:
  • Frank N. Caliendo
  • Maria Casanova
  • Aspen Gorry
  • Sita Slavov

Abstract

Uncertainty about the timing of retirement is a major financial risk with implications for decision making and welfare over the life cycle. We estimate that the standard deviation of the difference between retirement expectations and actual retirement dates ranges from 4.28 to 6.92 years. We develop a quantitative model to assess the impact of this risk. Individuals would give up 2.6%-5.7% of total lifetime consumption to fully insure this risk and 1.9%-4.0% of lifetime consumption simply to know their actual retirement date at age 23. While social insurance programs could be designed to hedge this risk, current programs in the U.S. (OASI and SSDI) provide very little timing insurance.

Suggested Citation

  • Frank N. Caliendo & Maria Casanova & Aspen Gorry & Sita Slavov, 2016. "The Welfare Cost of Retirement Uncertainty," NBER Working Papers 22609, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:22609
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Magnani, Marco, 2024. "An analysis of precautionary behavior in retirement decision making with an application to pension system reform," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 99-113.
    2. Salamanca, Nicolás & de Grip, Andries & Sleijpen, Olaf, 2020. "How People React to Pension Risk," IZA Discussion Papers 13077, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    3. Caliendo, Frank N. & Gorry, Aspen & Slavov, Sita, 2020. "Survival ambiguity and welfare," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 170(C), pages 20-42.
    4. Chen, Guodong & Lee, Minjoon & Nam, Tong-yob, 2020. "Forced retirement risk and portfolio choice," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 293-315.
    5. St-Amour, Pascal, 2024. "Valuing life over the life cycle," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis
    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions
    • J26 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Retirement; Retirement Policies

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