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Education, Participation, and the Revival of U.S. Economic Growth

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  • Dale W. Jorgenson
  • Mun S. Ho
  • Jon D. Samuels

Abstract

Labor quality growth captures the upgrading of the labor force through higher educational attainment and greater experience. We find that average levels of educational attainment of new entrants remain high, but will no longer continue to rise. Growing educational attainment will gradually disappear as a source of U.S. economic growth. We find that the investment boom of 1995-2000 drew many younger and less-educated workers into employment. Employment rates for these workers declined during the recovery of 2000-2007 and dropped further during the Great Recession of 2007-2009. Based on estimates of labor quality growth, growth in total factor productivity, and growth in capital quality, we project labor productivity to grow at 1.3% per year. This implies a GDP growth rate of 1.8%.

Suggested Citation

  • Dale W. Jorgenson & Mun S. Ho & Jon D. Samuels, 2016. "Education, Participation, and the Revival of U.S. Economic Growth," NBER Working Papers 22453, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:22453
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Cao, Jing & Ho, Mun S. & Hu, Wenhao & Jorgenson, Dale, 2020. "Effective labor supply and growth outlook in China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).
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    3. Han, Jong-Suk & Lee, Jong-Wha, 2020. "Demographic change, human capital, and economic growth in Korea," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 53(C).
    4. Zauresh Atakhanova, 2021. "Support services in the extractive industries and the role of innovation," Mineral Economics, Springer;Raw Materials Group (RMG);Luleå University of Technology, vol. 34(1), pages 141-150, April.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E01 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - Measurement and Data on National Income and Product Accounts and Wealth; Environmental Accounts
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • O4 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence

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