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Decomposing Duration Dependence in a Stopping Time Model

Author

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  • Fernando E. Alvarez
  • Katarína Borovičková
  • Robert Shimer

Abstract

We develop a dynamic model of transitions in and out of employment. A worker finds a job at an optimal stopping time, when a Brownian motion with drift hits a barrier. This implies that the duration of each worker's jobless spells has an inverse Gaussian distribution. We allow for arbitrary heterogeneity across workers in the parameters of this distribution and prove that the distribution of these parameters is identified from the duration of two spells. We use social security data for Austrian workers to estimate the model. We conclude that dynamic selection is a critical source of duration dependence.

Suggested Citation

  • Fernando E. Alvarez & Katarína Borovičková & Robert Shimer, 2016. "Decomposing Duration Dependence in a Stopping Time Model," NBER Working Papers 22188, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:22188
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Heckman, James & Singer, Burton, 1984. "A Method for Minimizing the Impact of Distributional Assumptions in Econometric Models for Duration Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 52(2), pages 271-320, March.
    2. N. Gregory Mankiw, 1985. "Small Menu Costs and Large Business Cycles: A Macroeconomic Model of Monopoly," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 100(2), pages 529-538.
    3. Alan B. Krueger & Judd Cramer & David Cho, 2014. "Are the Long-Term Unemployed on the Margins of the Labor Market?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 45(1 (Spring), pages 229-299.
    4. Silva, José Ignacio & Toledo, Manuel, 2009. "Labor Turnover Costs And The Cyclical Behavior Of Vacancies And Unemployment," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 13(S1), pages 76-96, May.
    5. Chris Elbers & Geert Ridder, 1982. "True and Spurious Duration Dependence: The Identifiability of the Proportional Hazard Model," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 49(3), pages 403-409.
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    Cited by:

    1. Ruixuan Liu, 2020. "A competing risks model with time‐varying heterogeneity and simultaneous failure," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 11(2), pages 535-577, May.
    2. Schmidpeter, Bernhard & Winter-Ebmer, Rudolf, 2021. "Automation, unemployment, and the role of labor market training," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    3. Andreas Hornstein & Marianna Kudlyak, 2015. "Estimating Matching Efficiency with Variable Search Effort," Working Paper Series 2016-24, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    4. Felder, Rahel & Frings, Hanna & Mittag, Nikolas, 2024. "How does potential unemployment insurance benefit duration affect reemployment timing and wages?," Ruhr Economic Papers 1111, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    5. Elisa Guglielminetti & Rafael Lalive & Philippe Ruh & Etienne Wasmer, 2019. "Home Sweet Home? Job Search with Commuting and Unemployment Insurance," Working Papers hal-03950253, HAL.
    6. Arne F. Lyshol & Plamen T. Nenov & Thea Wevelstad, 2021. "Duration Dependence and Labor Market Experience," LABOUR, CEIS, vol. 35(1), pages 105-134, March.
    7. Mr. Ippei Shibata, 2019. "Labor Market Dynamics: A Hidden Markov Approach," IMF Working Papers 2019/282, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Güell, Maia & Lafuente, Cristina, 2019. "Unemployment Duration Variance Decomposition a la ABS: Evidence from Spain," CEPR Discussion Papers 13610, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    9. Escanciano, Juan Carlos, 2023. "Irregular identification of structural models with nonparametric unobserved heterogeneity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 234(1), pages 106-127.
    10. Ioannis Kospentaris, 2021. "Unobserved Heterogeneity and Skill Loss in a Structural Model of Duration Dependence," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 39, pages 280-303, January.
    11. Güell, Maia & Lafuente, Cristina, 2022. "Revisiting the determinants of unemployment duration: Variance decomposition à la ABS in Spain," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    12. Carl Singleton, 2018. "Long‐Term Unemployment and the Great Recession: Evidence from UK Stocks and Flows," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 65(2), pages 105-126, May.
    13. Felder, Rahel & Frings, Hanna & Mittag, Nikolas, 2024. "How Does Potential Unemployment Insurance Benefit Duration Affect Reemployment Timing and Wages?," IZA Discussion Papers 17348, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    14. Div Bhagia, 2023. "Duration Dependence and Heterogeneity: Learning from Early Notice of Layoff," Papers 2305.17344, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2024.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • J64 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search

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