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The Limits of Meritocracy: Screening Bureaucrats Under Imperfect Verifiability

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  • Juan Carlos Suárez Serrato
  • Xiao Yu Wang
  • Shuang Zhang

Abstract

Does bureaucratic ability predict promotion in governments? We show that self-reported performance in enforcing the One Child Policy predicts mayoral promotion in China. However, misreporting handicaps screening—a non-manipulated performance measure does not predict promotion. We show that this is consistent with a model where a government has a meritocratic objective but underestimates the imperfect verifiability of performance, rather than a model where a government is only interested in the illusion of meritocracy. Thus, despite meritocratic intentions, we challenge the notion that a successful promotion system effectively substituted for democratic institutions in explaining Chinese growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Juan Carlos Suárez Serrato & Xiao Yu Wang & Shuang Zhang, 2016. "The Limits of Meritocracy: Screening Bureaucrats Under Imperfect Verifiability," NBER Working Papers 21963, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:21963
    Note: DEV LS PE POL
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    Cited by:

    1. de Janvry, Alain & He, Guojun & Sadoulet, Elisabeth & Wang, Shaoda & Zhang, Qiong, 2020. "Performance Evaluation, Influence Activities, and Bureaucratic Work Behavior: Evidence from China," Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley, Working Paper Series qt30z1q8nw, Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley.
    2. Liu Qiang & Fernando Rios-Avila & Han Jiqin, 2020. "Is China's Low Fertility Rate Caused by the Population Control Policy?," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_943, Levy Economics Institute.
    3. Yang, Jinyang & Bazan Ruiz, Muchin I.A, 2021. "Are pilot experiments random? Social connections and policy expansion in China," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 18(C).
    4. Monica Martinez-Bravo & Gerard Padró I Miquel & Nancy Qian & Yang Yao, 2017. "The Rise and Fall of Local Elections in China: Theory and Empirical Evidence on the Autocrat's Trade-off," NBER Working Papers 24032, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Guastavino, Carlos & Miranda, Alvaro & Montero, Rodrigo, 2021. "Rank effect in bureaucrat recruitment," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    6. Yi Chen & Yingfei Huang, 2020. "The power of the government: China's Family Planning Leading Group and the fertility decline of the 1970s," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 42(35), pages 985-1038.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D23 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Organizational Behavior; Transaction Costs; Property Rights
    • D73 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Bureaucracy; Administrative Processes in Public Organizations; Corruption
    • D86 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Economics of Contract Law
    • M12 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Business Administration - - - Personnel Management; Executives; Executive Compensation
    • M51 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Personnel Economics - - - Firm Employment Decisions; Promotions
    • O12 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Microeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • O15 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Economic Development: Human Resources; Human Development; Income Distribution; Migration
    • O53 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Asia including Middle East
    • P23 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Socialist and Transition Economies - - - Factor and Product Markets; Industry Studies; Population
    • P26 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Socialist and Transition Economies - - - Property Rights
    • P48 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Other Economic Systems - - - Legal Institutions; Property Rights; Natural Resources; Energy; Environment; Regional Studies

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