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Using Split Samples to Improve Inference about Causal Effects

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  • Marcel Fafchamps
  • Julien Labonne

Abstract

We discuss a method aimed at reducing the risk that spurious results are published. Researchers send their datasets to an independent third party who randomly generates training and testing samples. Researchers perform their analysis on the former and once the paper is accepted for publication the method is applied to the latter and it is those results that are published. Simulations indicate that, under empirically relevant settings, the proposed method significantly reduces type I error and delivers adequate power. The method – that can be combined with pre-analysis plans – reduces the risk that relevant hypotheses are left untested.

Suggested Citation

  • Marcel Fafchamps & Julien Labonne, 2016. "Using Split Samples to Improve Inference about Causal Effects," NBER Working Papers 21842, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:21842
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    3. Nosek, Brian A. & Ebersole, Charles R. & DeHaven, Alexander Carl & Mellor, David Thomas, 2018. "The Preregistration Revolution," OSF Preprints 2dxu5, Center for Open Science.
    4. Bedoya Arguelles,Guadalupe & Bittarello,Luca & Davis,Jonathan Martin Villars & Mittag,Nikolas Karl & Bedoya Arguelles,Guadalupe & Bittarello,Luca & Davis,Jonathan Martin Villars & Mittag,Nikolas Karl, 2017. "Distributional impact analysis: toolkit and illustrations of impacts beyond the average treatment effect," Policy Research Working Paper Series 8139, The World Bank.
    5. Marcel Fafchamps & Julien Labonne, 2020. "Family Networks and Distributive Politics," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 18(4), pages 1697-1725.
    6. Edward Miguel, 2021. "Evidence on Research Transparency in Economics," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 35(3), pages 193-214, Summer.
    7. Muhammad Haseeb & Kate Vyborny, 2016. "Imposing institutions: Evidence from cash transfer reform in Pakistan," CSAE Working Paper Series 2016-36, Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford.
    8. Maurizio Canavari & Andreas C. Drichoutis & Jayson L. Lusk & Rodolfo M. Nayga, Jr., 2018. "How to run an experimental auction: A review of recent advances," Working Papers 2018-5, Agricultural University of Athens, Department Of Agricultural Economics.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
    • C18 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Methodolical Issues: General

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