IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nbr/nberwo/21693.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Bubble Investing: Learning from History

Author

Listed:
  • William N. Goetzmann

Abstract

History is important to the study of financial bubbles precisely because they are extremely rare events, but history can be misleading. The rarity of bubbles in the historical record makes the sample size for inference small. Restricting attention to crashes that followed a large increase in market level makes negative historical outcomes salient. In this paper I examine the frequency of large, sudden increases in market value in a broad panel data of world equity markets extending from the beginning of the 20th century. I find the probability of a crash conditional on a boom is only slightly higher than the unconditional probability. The chances that a market gave back it gains following a doubling in value are about 10%. In simple terms, bubbles are booms that went bad. Not all booms are bad.

Suggested Citation

  • William N. Goetzmann, 2015. "Bubble Investing: Learning from History," NBER Working Papers 21693, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:21693
    Note: AP
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w21693.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Goetzmann, William N. & Jorion, Philippe, 1999. "Re-Emerging Markets," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 34(1), pages 1-32, March.
    2. Tom Nicholas, 2008. "Does Innovation Cause Stock Market Runups? Evidence from the Great Crash," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(4), pages 1370-1396, September.
    3. Philippe Jorion & William N. Goetzmann, 1999. "Global Stock Markets in the Twentieth Century," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(3), pages 953-980, June.
    4. Pastor, Lubos & Veronesi, Pietro, 2006. "Was there a Nasdaq bubble in the late 1990s?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(1), pages 61-100, July.
    5. Cameron, Rondo, 1978. "The Cambridge Economic History of Europe. Volume V: The Economic Organization of Early Modern Europe. Edited by E. E. Rich and C. H. Wilson. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1977. Pp. xi, 749. $," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 38(3), pages 810-812, September.
    6. Frehen, Rik G.P. & Goetzmann, William N. & Geert Rouwenhorst, K., 2013. "New evidence on the first financial bubble," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(3), pages 585-607.
    7. Carlota Perez, 2009. "The double bubble at the turn of the century: technological roots and structural implications," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 33(4), pages 779-805, July.
    8. William N. Goetzmann & Lingfeng Li & K. Geert Rouwenhorst, 2005. "Long-Term Global Market Correlations," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 78(1), pages 1-38, January.
    9. Michele Fratianni, 2006. "Government Debt, Reputation and Creditors’ Protections: The Tale of San Giorgio," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 10(4), pages 487-506, December.
    10. Murphy, Antoin E., 1997. "John Law: Economic Theorist and Policy-maker," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198286493.
    11. Garber, Peter M, 1990. "Famous First Bubbles," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 4(2), pages 35-54, Spring.
    12. Goetzmann, William N. & Ibbotson, Roger G., 2006. "The Equity Risk Premium: Essays and Explorations," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780195148145.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Greenwood, Robin & Shleifer, Andrei & You, Yang, 2019. "Bubbles for Fama," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(1), pages 20-43.
    2. Patty Duijm, 2022. "Foreign‐funded credit: Funding the credit cycle?," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(2), pages 167-182, August.
    3. William Quinn & John D. Turner, 2023. "Bubbles in history," Business History, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 65(4), pages 636-655, May.
    4. Tom Roberts, 2017. "A Counterfactual Valuation of the Stock Index as a Predictor of Crashes," Staff Working Papers 17-38, Bank of Canada.
    5. Michael D. Bordo, 2017. "An historical perspective on financial stability and monetary policy regimes: A case for caution in central banks current obsession with financial stability," Working Paper 2018/5, Norges Bank.
    6. Stefanescu, Razvan & Dumitriu, Ramona, 2016. "Particularitǎţi ale evoluţiei variabilelor financiare [Some particularities of the financial variables evolution]," MPRA Paper 73481, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 02 Sep 2016.
    7. Olivier Blanchard & Lawrence H. Summers, 2019. "Ripensare le politiche macroeconomiche: evoluzione o rivoluzione? (Evolution or Revolution? Rethinking Macroeconomic Policy after the Great Recession)," Moneta e Credito, Economia civile, vol. 72(287), pages 171-195.
    8. Bordo, M.D. & Meissner, C.M., 2016. "Fiscal and Financial Crises," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 355-412, Elsevier.
    9. Olivier J. Blanchard & Lawrence H. Summers, 2017. "Rethinking Stabilization Policy: Evolution or Revolution?," NBER Working Papers 24179, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Michael D. Bordo, 2017. "An Historical Perspective on the Quest for Financial Stability and the Monetary Policy Regime," Economics Working Papers 17108, Hoover Institution, Stanford University.
    11. Quinn, William & Turner, John D., 2021. "Riding the Bubble or Taken for a Ride? Investors in the British Bicycle Mania," QBS Working Paper Series 2021/08, Queen's University Belfast, Queen's Business School.
    12. Quinn, William, 2016. "Technological revolutions and speculative finance: Evidence from the British Bicycle Mania," QUCEH Working Paper Series 2016-06, Queen's University Belfast, Queen's University Centre for Economic History.
    13. Patty Duijm, 2019. "Foreign funded credit: funding the credit cycle?," DNB Working Papers 658, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Yang Hu & Les Oxley, 2017. "Exuberance in British Share Prices during the Railway Mania of the 1840s: Evidence from the Phillips, Shi and Yu Test," Working Papers in Economics 17/09, University of Waikato.
    2. Quinn, William, 2016. "Technological revolutions and speculative finance: Evidence from the British Bicycle Mania," QUCEH Working Paper Series 2016-06, Queen's University Belfast, Queen's University Centre for Economic History.
    3. William Quinn & John D. Turner, 2023. "Bubbles in history," Business History, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 65(4), pages 636-655, May.
    4. Quinn, William & Turner, John D., 2021. "Riding the Bubble or Taken for a Ride? Investors in the British Bicycle Mania," QBS Working Paper Series 2021/08, Queen's University Belfast, Queen's Business School.
    5. Yang Hu & Les Oxley, 2017. "Exuberance in Historical Stock Prices during the Mississippi and South Seas Bubble Episodes," Working Papers in Economics 17/08, University of Waikato.
    6. Greenwood, Robin & Shleifer, Andrei & You, Yang, 2019. "Bubbles for Fama," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(1), pages 20-43.
    7. Jihad Dagher, 2018. "Regulatory Cycles: Revisiting the Political Economy of Financial Crises," IMF Working Papers 2018/008, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Madarász, Aladár, 2011. "Buborékok és legendák. Válságok és válságmagyarázatok - II/2. rész. A Déltengeri Társaság [Bubbles and myths, crises and explanations II/2: the South Sea bubble]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(12), pages 1001-1028.
    9. Thorsten Lehnert, 2020. "Fear and stock price bubbles," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(5), pages 1-17, May.
    10. Michael Demmler & Amilcar Orlian Fernández Domínguez, 2021. "Bitcoin and the South Sea Company: A comparative analysis," Revista Finanzas y Politica Economica, Universidad Católica de Colombia, vol. 13(1), pages 197-224, March.
    11. Zhu Wang, 2007. "Technological Innovation and Market Turbulence: The Dot-com Experience," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 10(1), pages 78-105, January.
    12. Queirós, Francisco, 2024. "Asset bubbles and product market competition," Theoretical Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 19(1), January.
    13. Marie Briere & Kim Oosterlinck & Ariane Szafarz, 2015. "Virtual Currency, Tangible Return: Portfolio Diversification with Bitcoins," Post-Print CEB, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles, vol. 16(6), pages 365-373.
    14. Braggion, Fabio & Frehen, Rik & Jerphanion, Emiel, 2024. "Credit provision and stock trading: Evidence from the South Sea bubble," Other publications TiSEM 314d080e-d48e-40cf-9334-4, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    15. Turner, John D., 2014. "Financial history and financial economics," QUCEH Working Paper Series 14-03, Queen's University Belfast, Queen's University Centre for Economic History.
    16. Meenagh, David & Minford, Patrick & Peel, David, 2007. "Simulating stock returns under switching regimes - A new test of market efficiency," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 94(2), pages 235-239, February.
    17. Berardi, Michele, 2021. "Uncertainty, sentiments and time-varying risk premia," MPRA Paper 106922, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Ma, Richie Ruchuan & Xiong, Tao, 2021. "Price explosiveness in nonferrous metal futures markets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 75-90.
    19. Stijn Claessens & M Ayhan Kose, 2017. "Asset prices and macroeconomic outcomes: a survey," BIS Working Papers 676, Bank for International Settlements.
    20. Robert A. Jarrow, 2015. "Asset Price Bubbles," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 7(1), pages 201-218, December.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • N2 - Economic History - - Financial Markets and Institutions

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:21693. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/nberrus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.