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Betting on Secession: Quantifying Political Events Surrounding Slavery and the Civil War

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  • Charles W. Calomiris
  • Jonathan Pritchett

Abstract

Abraham Lincoln's election produced Southern secession, Civil War, and abolition. Using a new database of slave sales from New Orleans, we examine the connections between political news and the prices of slaves for 1856-1861. We find that slave prices declined by roughly a third from their 1860 peak, reflecting increased southern pessimism regarding the possibility of war and the war's possible outcome. The South's decision to secede reflected the beliefs that the North would not invade to oppose secession, and that emancipation of slaves without compensation was unlikely, both of which were subsequently dashed by Lincoln's actions.

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  • Charles W. Calomiris & Jonathan Pritchett, 2013. "Betting on Secession: Quantifying Political Events Surrounding Slavery and the Civil War," NBER Working Papers 19625, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:19625
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    1. Jonathan Pritchett & Jessica Hayes, 2011. "The Occupations of Slaves Sold in New Orleans: Missing Values, Cheap Talk, or Informative Advertising," Working Papers 1113, Tulane University, Department of Economics.
    2. Pritchett, Jonathan & Smith, Mallorie, 2013. "Sequential Sales as a Test of Adverse Selection in the Market for Slaves," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 73(2), pages 477-497, June.
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    5. Chenny, Shirley & St-Amour, Pascal & Vencatachellum, Desire, 2003. "Slave prices from succession and bankruptcy sales in Mauritius, 1825-1827," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 40(4), pages 419-442, October.
    6. Newland, Carlos & San segundo, María Jesús, 1996. "Human Capital and Other Determinants of the Price Life Cycle of a Slave: Peru and La Plata in the Eighteenth Century," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 56(3), pages 694-701, September.
    7. Calomiris, Charles W. & Pritchett, Jonathan B., 2009. "Preserving Slave Families for Profit: Traders' Incentives and Pricing in the New Orleans Slave Market," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 69(4), pages 986-1011, December.
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    10. Calomiris, Charles W. & Schweikart, Larry, 1991. "The Panic of 1857: Origins, Transmission, and Containment," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 51(4), pages 807-834, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Lacroix, Jean & Mitchener, Kris & Oosterlinck, Kim, 2023. "Domino Secessions: Evidence from the U.S," CEPR Discussion Papers 18377, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Paul Hallwood, 2017. "Comment: Betting on Secession: Quantifying Political Events Surrounding Slavery and the Civil War," Working papers 2017-07, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics.
    3. Melissa Rubio-Ramos, 2022. "From Plantations to Prisons: The Race Gap in Incarceration After the Abolition of Slavery in the U.S," ECONtribute Discussion Papers Series 195, University of Bonn and University of Cologne, Germany.
    4. Richard C. Sutch, 2018. "The Economics of African American Slavery: The Cliometrics Debate," NBER Working Papers 25197, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Trevon D. Logan, 2018. "Do Black Politicians Matter?," NBER Working Papers 24190, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Kimbrough, Erik O. & Laughren, Kevin & Sheremeta, Roman, 2020. "War and conflict in economics: Theories, applications, and recent trends," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 178(C), pages 998-1013.
    7. Laurie Binge & Willem H Boshoff, 2016. "Modelling South African Art Prices: An analysis of post-2000 price behaviour," Working Papers 18/2016, Stellenbosch University, Department of Economics.
    8. Philipp Ager & Leah Boustan & Katherine Eriksson, 2021. "The Intergenerational Effects of a Large Wealth Shock: White Southerners after the Civil War," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 111(11), pages 3767-3794, November.
    9. Hong, Sok Chul & Hwang, Inhyuk, 2024. "Race, immunity, and lifespan: Unraveling the effect of early-life exposure to malaria risk on lifespan," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    10. González, Felipe & Marshall, Guillermo & Naidu, Suresh, 2017. "Start-up Nation? Slave Wealth and Entrepreneurship in Civil War Maryland," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 77(2), pages 373-405, June.
    11. Paul Hallwood, 2018. "The Confederacy and the American Civil War, 1861-1865: Greed Or Grievance?," Working papers 2018-18, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics.
    12. Jenny Bourne, 2022. "Double take: Abolition and the size of transferred property rights," Social Science Quarterly, Southwestern Social Science Association, vol. 103(7), pages 1706-1718, December.
    13. Conor Lennon, 2016. "Slave Escape, Prices, and the Fugitive Slave Act of 1850," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 59(3), pages 669-695.
    14. Binge, Laurie H. & Boshoff, Willem H., 2021. "Measuring alternative asset prices in an emerging market: The case of the South African art market," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 47(C).
    15. Logan, Trevon D. & Pritchett, Jonathan B., 2018. "On the marital status of U. S. slaves: Evidence from Touro Infirmary, New Orleans, Louisiana," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 50-63.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • G18 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • N31 - Economic History - - Labor and Consumers, Demography, Education, Health, Welfare, Income, Wealth, Religion, and Philanthropy - - - U.S.; Canada: Pre-1913
    • N41 - Economic History - - Government, War, Law, International Relations, and Regulation - - - U.S.; Canada: Pre-1913
    • P16 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Capitalist Economies - - - Capitalist Institutions; Welfare State

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