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Why Have Unemployment Rates in Canada and the U.S. Diverged?

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  • Orley Ashenfelter
  • David Card

Abstract

Throughout the post-war period, U.S. and Canadian unemployent rates moved in tandem, but this historical link apparently ended in 1982. During the past three years, Canadian unemployment rates have been some three percentage points higher than their U.S. analogues, and this gap shows no sign of diminishing. This paper is an empirical evaluation of a variety of explanations for this new unemployment gap. We first show that the demographic and industrial composition of the two countries is remarkably similar, so that no simple mechanical hypothesis explain the basic puzzle. It is also evident that the increase in Canadian unemployment relative to U.S. unemployment can not be fully attributed to output movements. We find that the gap between actual and predicted Canadian output, based on U.S. output, has fallen dramatically since 1982 while the unemployment gap has widened. We also find that unemployment in Canada was 2 to 3 percentage points higher in 1983 and 1984 than predicted by Canadian output. We have investigated a variety of hypotheses to explain the slow growth of employment in Canada after 1982. These hypotheses attribute the slow growth of employment to rigidities in the labor market that raise employers' costs and restrict the flow of workers between sectors. The evidence does not support the notion that the growth in relative unemployment in Canada is due to differences in the regulation of the labor market in the two countries. Minimum wage laws and unemployment benefits are fairly similar in Canada and the U.S., and neither has changed relative to the other in the last decade. Unionization rates have increased in Canada relative to US. since 1970. Most of this divergence occured before 1980, however, and does not seem to have created an unemployment gap prior to 1980. Finally,the hypothesis that differential real wage rates are a major determinant of relative employment in the U.S. and Canada is soundly rejected by the data. Real wage rates have been essentially uncorrelated with employment movements within each country and between the two countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Orley Ashenfelter & David Card, 1986. "Why Have Unemployment Rates in Canada and the U.S. Diverged?," NBER Working Papers 1840, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:1840
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. repec:pri:indrel:dsp01dr26xx382 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Gary Burtless, 1983. "Why Is Insured Unemployment So Low?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 14(1), pages 225-254.
    3. Orley Ashenfelter & David Card, 1982. "Time Series Representations of Economic Variables and Alternative Models of the Labour Market," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 49(5), pages 761-782.
    4. Geary, Patrick T & Kennan, John, 1982. "The Employment-Real Wage Relationship: An International Study," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 90(4), pages 854-871, August.
    5. Michael Bruno, 1985. "Aggregate Supply and Demand Factors in OECD Unemployment: An Update," NBER Working Papers 1696, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    Cited by:

    1. Fortin, Pierre, 1988. "La persistance du chômage : synthèse," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 64(4), pages 545-558, décembre.
    2. Manfred Keil & Louis Pantuosco, 1998. "Canadian and US Unemployment Rates: A Comparison Based on Regional Data," Canadian Public Policy, University of Toronto Press, vol. 24(s1), pages 38-55, February.
    3. David Card & W. Craig Riddell, 1993. "A Comparative Analysis of Unemployment in Canada and the United States," NBER Chapters, in: Small Differences That Matter: Labor Markets and Income Maintenance in Canada and the United States, pages 149-190, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Peter Kuhn & A. Leslie Robb, 1998. "Shifting Skill Demand and the Canada-US Unemployment Gap: Evidence from Prime-Age Men," Canadian Public Policy, University of Toronto Press, vol. 24(s1), pages 170-191, February.
    5. Carroll, Chris & Summers, Lawrence H., 1987. "Why have private savings rates in the United States and Canada diverged?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 249-279, September.
    6. Robert Amano & Tony S. Wirjanto, "undated". "An Empirical Investigation into Government Spending and Private Sector Behaviour," Staff Working Papers 94-8, Bank of Canada.
    7. Victor Claar, 2006. "Is the NAIRU more useful in forecasting inflation than the natural rate of unemployment?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(18), pages 2179-2189.
    8. Denise Côté & Doug Hostland, 1996. "An Econometric Examination of the Trend Unemployment Rate in Canada," Staff Working Papers 96-7, Bank of Canada.
    9. Dibooglu, Selahattin & Enders, Walter, 2001. "Do Real Wages Respond Asymmetrically to Unemployment Shocks? Evidence from the U.S. and Canada," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 495-515, October.
    10. Florian Hoffmann & Thomas Lemieux, 2016. "Unemployment in the Great Recession: A Comparison of Germany, Canada, and the United States," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 34(S1), pages 95-139.
    11. Miquel Faig, 2008. "Labor Market Cycles and Unemployment Insurance Eligibility," 2008 Meeting Papers 183, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    12. Stephen S. Poloz, "undated". "The Causes of Unemployment in Canada: A Review of the Evidence," Staff Working Papers 94-11, Bank of Canada.
    13. Stephen S. Poloz, 1995. "The Causes of Unemployment in Canada: A Review of the Evidence," Macroeconomics 9502002, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Grady, Patrick, 1986. "Background Paper on Full Employment," MPRA Paper 26328, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Palle S. Andersen, 1987. "Profit shares, investment and output capacity," BIS Working Papers 12, Bank for International Settlements.
    16. Kevin Lang & Jay Zagorsky, 1998. "Why are Canadian and US Unemployment Rates So Highly Correlated?," Canadian Public Policy, University of Toronto Press, vol. 24(s1), pages 56-71, February.
    17. Richard B. Freeman & Karen Needels, 1993. "Skill Differentials in Canada in an Era of Rising Labor Market Inequality," NBER Chapters, in: Small Differences That Matter: Labor Markets and Income Maintenance in Canada and the United States, pages 45-68, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. Zagorsky, Jay L., 1998. "Was depression era unemployment really less in Canada than the U.S.?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 61(1), pages 125-131, October.

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    JEL classification:

    • D23 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Organizational Behavior; Transaction Costs; Property Rights
    • D24 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Production; Cost; Capital; Capital, Total Factor, and Multifactor Productivity; Capacity

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