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Projection Bias in the Car and Housing Markets

Author

Listed:
  • Meghan R. Busse
  • Devin G. Pope
  • Jaren C. Pope
  • Jorge Silva-Risso

Abstract

Projection bias is the tendency to overpredict the degree to which one's future tastes will resemble one's current tastes. We test for evidence of projection bias in two of the largest and most important consumer markets - the car and housing markets. Using data for more than forty million vehicle transactions and four million housing purchases, we explore the impact of the weather on purchasing decisions. We find that the choice to purchase a convertible, a 4-wheel drive, or a vehicle that is black in color is highly dependent on the weather at the time of purchase in a way that is inconsistent with classical utility theory. Similarly, we find that the hedonic value that a swimming pool and that central air add to a house is higher when the house goes under contract in the summertime compared to the wintertime.

Suggested Citation

  • Meghan R. Busse & Devin G. Pope & Jaren C. Pope & Jorge Silva-Risso, 2012. "Projection Bias in the Car and Housing Markets," NBER Working Papers 18212, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:18212
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Andrzej Baniak & Peter Grajzl, 2017. "Optimal Liability when Consumers Mispredict Product Usage," American Law and Economics Review, American Law and Economics Association, vol. 19(1), pages 202-243.
    2. Katharina Dowling & Daniel Guhl & Daniel Klapper & Martin Spann & Lucas Stich & Narine Yegoryan, 2020. "Behavioral biases in marketing," Journal of the Academy of Marketing Science, Springer, vol. 48(3), pages 449-477, May.
    3. Keys, Benjamin J. & Pope, Devin G. & Pope, Jaren C., 2016. "Failure to refinance," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 122(3), pages 482-499.
    4. Giovanna d’Adda & Yu Gao & Russell Golman & Massimo Tavoni, 2018. "It’s So Hot in Here: Information Avoidance, Moral Wiggle Room, and High Air Conditioning Usage," Working Papers 2018.07, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    5. Kate Ho & Joseph Hogan & Fiona Scott Morton, 2017. "The impact of consumer inattention on insurer pricing in the Medicare Part D program," RAND Journal of Economics, RAND Corporation, vol. 48(4), pages 877-905, December.
    6. Sophie Clot & Gilles Grolleau & Lisette Ibanez, 2020. "Projection bias in environmental attitudes and behavioral intentions," CEE-M Working Papers hal-02874044, CEE-M, Universtiy of Montpellier, CNRS, INRA, Montpellier SupAgro.
    7. Evan Herrnstadt & Richard L. Sweeney, 2017. "What Lies Beneath: Pipeline Awareness and Aversion," NBER Working Papers 23858, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Michael Grubb, 2015. "Behavioral Consumers in Industrial Organization: An Overview," Review of Industrial Organization, Springer;The Industrial Organization Society, vol. 47(3), pages 247-258, November.
    9. Teresa Briz & Andreas Drichoutis & Lisa House, 2015. "Examining projection bias in experimental auctions: the role of hunger and immediate gratification," Agricultural and Food Economics, Springer;Italian Society of Agricultural Economics (SIDEA), vol. 3(1), pages 1-17, December.
    10. Martínez-de-Albéniz, Victor & Belkaid, Abdel, 2021. "Here comes the sun: Fashion goods retailing under weather fluctuations," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 294(3), pages 820-830.
    11. Tscharaktschiew, Stefan, 2016. "The private (unnoticed) welfare cost of highway speeding behavior from time saving misperceptions," Economics of Transportation, Elsevier, vol. 7, pages 24-37.
    12. d’Adda , Giovanna & Gao , Yu & Golman, Russell & Tavoni, Massimo, 2018. "It’s So Hot in Here: Information Avoidance, Moral Wiggle Room, and High Air Conditioning," CSI: Climate and Sustainable Innovation 269535, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM).

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D03 - Microeconomics - - General - - - Behavioral Microeconomics: Underlying Principles
    • D12 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
    • L62 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Manufacturing - - - Automobiles; Other Transportation Equipment; Related Parts and Equipment

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