IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nbr/nberwo/17253.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Heterogeneity and the Dynamics of Technology Adoption

Author

Listed:
  • Stephen P. Ryan
  • Catherine Tucker

Abstract

We estimate the demand for a videocalling technology in the presence of both network effects and heterogeneity. Using a unique dataset from a large multinational firm, we pose and estimate a fully dynamic model of technology adoption. We propose a novel identification strategy based on post-adoption technology usage to disentangle equilibrium beliefs concerning the evolution of the network from observed and unobserved heterogeneity in technology adoption costs and use benefits. We find that employees have significant heterogeneity in both adoption costs and network benefits, and have preferences for diverse networks. Using our estimates, we evaluate a number of counterfactual adoption policies, and find that a policy of strategically targeting the right subtype for initial adoption can lead to a faster-growing and larger network than a policy of uncoordinated or diffuse adoption.

Suggested Citation

  • Stephen P. Ryan & Catherine Tucker, 2011. "Heterogeneity and the Dynamics of Technology Adoption," NBER Working Papers 17253, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:17253
    Note: IO
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w17253.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Patrick Bajari & C. Lanier Benkard & Jonathan Levin, 2007. "Estimating Dynamic Models of Imperfect Competition," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 75(5), pages 1331-1370, September.
    2. Joseph Farrell & Garth Saloner, 1985. "Standardization, Compatibility, and Innovation," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 16(1), pages 70-83, Spring.
    3. Patrick Bajari & Han Hong & Stephen P. Ryan, 2010. "Identification and Estimation of a Discrete Game of Complete Information," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 78(5), pages 1529-1568, September.
    4. Raghuram G. Rajan & Julie Wulf, 2006. "The Flattening Firm: Evidence from Panel Data on the Changing Nature of Corporate Hierarchies," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 88(4), pages 759-773, November.
    5. Jean-Pierre H. Dubé & Günter J. Hitsch & Pradeep K. Chintagunta, 2010. "Tipping and Concentration in Markets with Indirect Network Effects," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 29(2), pages 216-249, 03-04.
    6. Daniel A. Ackerberg & Gautam Gowrisankaran, 2006. "Quantifying equilibrium network externalities in the ACH banking industry," RAND Journal of Economics, RAND Corporation, vol. 37(3), pages 738-761, September.
    7. Keane, Michael P & Wolpin, Kenneth I, 1997. "The Career Decisions of Young Men," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 105(3), pages 473-522, June.
    8. Nancy L. Rose & Paul L. Joskow, 1990. "The Diffusion of New Technologies: Evidence from the Electric Utility Industry," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 21(3), pages 354-373, Autumn.
    9. Gautam Gowrisankaran & Joanna Stavins, 2004. "Network Externalities and Technology Adoption: Lessons from Electronic Payments," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 35(2), pages 260-276, Summer.
    10. Jackson, Matthew O. & Wolinsky, Asher, 1996. "A Strategic Model of Social and Economic Networks," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 71(1), pages 44-74, October.
    11. Brett R. Gordon, 2009. "A Dynamic Model of Consumer Replacement Cycles in the PC Processor Industry," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 28(5), pages 846-867, 09-10.
    12. Catherine Tucker, 2011. "Network Stability, Network Externalities and Technology Adoption," NBER Working Papers 17246, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Katz, Michael L & Shapiro, Carl, 1985. "Network Externalities, Competition, and Compatibility," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 75(3), pages 424-440, June.
    14. Sanjog Misra & Harikesh Nair, 2011. "A structural model of sales-force compensation dynamics: Estimation and field implementation," Quantitative Marketing and Economics (QME), Springer, vol. 9(3), pages 211-257, September.
    15. Luis Garicano, 2000. "Hierarchies and the Organization of Knowledge in Production," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 108(5), pages 874-904, October.
    16. Maskin, Eric & Tirole, Jean, 2001. "Markov Perfect Equilibrium: I. Observable Actions," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 100(2), pages 191-219, October.
    17. Wesley R. Hartmann & Harikesh S. Nair, 2010. "Retail Competition and the Dynamics of Demand for Tied Goods," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 29(2), pages 366-386, 03-04.
    18. Marc Rysman, 2004. "Competition Between Networks: A Study of the Market for Yellow Pages," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 71(2), pages 483-512.
    19. Harikesh Nair & Pradeep Chintagunta & Jean-Pierre Dubé, 2004. "Empirical Analysis of Indirect Network Effects in the Market for Personal Digital Assistants," Quantitative Marketing and Economics (QME), Springer, vol. 2(1), pages 23-58, March.
    20. Radner, Roy, 1993. "The Organization of Decentralized Information Processing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(5), pages 1109-1146, September.
    21. Catherine Tucker, 2008. "Identifying Formal and Informal Influence in Technology Adoption with Network Externalities," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 54(12), pages 2024-2038, December.
    22. Edward P. Lazear, 2000. "The Power of Incentives," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(2), pages 410-414, May.
    23. Maskin, Eric & Tirole, Jean, 1988. "A Theory of Dynamic Oligopoly, I: Overview and Quantity Competition with Large Fixed Costs," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 56(3), pages 549-569, May.
    24. Pradeep K. Chintagunta, 1999. "Variety Seeking, Purchase Timing, and the "Lightning Bolt" Brand Choice Model," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 45(4), pages 486-498, April.
    25. Reiss, Peter C & Spiller, Pablo T, 1989. "Competition and Entry in Small Airline Markets," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 32(2), pages 179-202, October.
    26. S. J. Liebowitz & Stephen E. Margolis, 1994. "Network Externality: An Uncommon Tragedy," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 8(2), pages 133-150, Spring.
    27. Daniel Ackerberg & Gautam Gowrisankaran, 2006. "Quantifying Equilibrium Network Externalities in the ACH Banking Industry," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 37(3), pages 738-761, Autumn.
    28. Timothy van Zandt, 1999. "Real-Time Decentralized Information Processing as a Model of Organizations with Boundedly Rational Agents," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 66(3), pages 633-658.
    29. Michaela Draganska & Michael Mazzeo & Katja Seim, 2009. "Beyond plain vanilla: Modeling joint product assortment and pricing decisions," Quantitative Marketing and Economics (QME), Springer, vol. 7(2), pages 105-146, June.
    30. Igal Hendel & Aviv Nevo, 2006. "Measuring the Implications of Sales and Consumer Inventory Behavior," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 74(6), pages 1637-1673, November.
    31. Frank M. Bass, 1969. "A New Product Growth for Model Consumer Durables," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 15(5), pages 215-227, January.
    32. Liran Einav (Stanford University), 2004. "Not All Rivals Look Alike: An Empirical Model for Discrete Games with Asymmetric Rivals," Econometric Society 2004 North American Winter Meetings 626, Econometric Society.
    33. Garicano, Luis & Hubbard, Thomas N, 2007. "Managerial Leverage Is Limited by the Extent of the Market: Hierarchies, Specialization, and the Utilization of Lawyers' Human Capital," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 50(1), pages 1-43, February.
    34. Andrews, Donald W.K. & Guggenberger, Patrik, 2010. "ASYMPTOTIC SIZE AND A PROBLEM WITH SUBSAMPLING AND WITH THE m OUT OF n BOOTSTRAP," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 26(2), pages 426-468, April.
    35. Timothy Van Zandt & Roy Radner, 1998. "Real-Time Decentralized Information Processing and Returns to Scale," Discussion Papers 1233, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
    36. George Baker & Michael Gibbs & Bengt Holmstrom, 1994. "The Internal Economics of the Firm: Evidence from Personnel Data," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 109(4), pages 881-919.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Daniel Birke, 2009. "The Economics Of Networks: A Survey Of The Empirical Literature," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(4), pages 762-793, September.
    2. Bruno Jullien & Alessandro Pavan & Marc Rysman, 2021. "Two-sided markets, pricing, and network effects," Post-Print hal-03828345, HAL.
    3. Pinar Karaca-Mandic, 2011. "Role of complementarities in technology adoption: The case of DVD players," Quantitative Marketing and Economics (QME), Springer, vol. 9(2), pages 179-210, June.
    4. Timothy Derdenger & Vineet Kumar, 2013. "The Dynamic Effects of Bundling as a Product Strategy," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 32(6), pages 827-859, November.
    5. Yue Liu & Rong Luo, 2023. "Network Effects and Multinetwork Sellers’ Dynamic Pricing in the U.S. Smartphone Market," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 69(6), pages 3297-3318, June.
    6. Jean-Pierre H. Dubé & Günter J. Hitsch & Pradeep K. Chintagunta, 2010. "Tipping and Concentration in Markets with Indirect Network Effects," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 29(2), pages 216-249, 03-04.
    7. El Hadi Caoui, 2019. "Estimating the Costs of Standardization: Evidence from the Movie Industry," CESifo Working Paper Series 8040, CESifo.
    8. Oz Shy, 2011. "A Short Survey of Network Economics," Review of Industrial Organization, Springer;The Industrial Organization Society, vol. 38(2), pages 119-149, March.
    9. Kim, Jin-Hyuk & Prince, Jeffrey & Qiu, Calvin, 2014. "Indirect network effects and the quality dimension: A look at the gaming industry," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 99-108.
    10. Marc Rysman & Gautam Gowrisankaran & Minsoo Park, 2011. "Measuring Network Effects in a Dynamic Environment," Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series WP2011-061, Boston University - Department of Economics.
    11. Pradeep K. Chintagunta & Harikesh S. Nair, 2011. "Structural Workshop Paper --Discrete-Choice Models of Consumer Demand in Marketing," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 30(6), pages 977-996, November.
    12. Bart Bronnenberg & Jean Dubé & Carl Mela & Paulo Albuquerque & Tulin Erdem & Brett Gordon & Dominique Hanssens & Guenter Hitsch & Han Hong & Baohong Sun, 2008. "Measuring long-run marketing effects and their implications for long-run marketing decisions," Marketing Letters, Springer, vol. 19(3), pages 367-382, December.
    13. Yiyi Zhou, 2017. "Bayesian Estimation of a Dynamic Model of Two-Sided Markets: Application to the U.S. Video Game Industry," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 63(11), pages 3874-3894, November.
    14. Daniel Björkegren, 2022. "Competition in network industries: Evidence from the Rwandan mobile phone network," RAND Journal of Economics, RAND Corporation, vol. 53(1), pages 200-225, March.
    15. Kevin J. Boudreau, 2021. "Promoting Platform Takeoff and Self-Fulfilling Expectations: Field Experimental Evidence," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 67(9), pages 5953-5967, September.
    16. Robin S. Lee, 2013. "Vertical Integration and Exclusivity in Platform and Two-Sided Markets," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(7), pages 2960-3000, December.
    17. Richards, Timothy J. & Hamilton, Stephen F., 2018. "Food waste in the sharing economy," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 109-123.
    18. Han Hong & Ahmed Khwaja & A. Ronald Gallant, 2008. "Estimating Dynamic Games of Complete Information with an Application to the Generic Pharmaceutical Industry," 2008 Meeting Papers 1050, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    19. Amalia R. Miller & Catherine Tucker, 2009. "Privacy Protection and Technology Diffusion: The Case of Electronic Medical Records," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 55(7), pages 1077-1093, July.
    20. Wouter Dessein & Tano Santos, 2003. "The Demand for Coordination," NBER Working Papers 10056, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C10 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - General
    • L10 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - General
    • O32 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Management of Technological Innovation and R&D

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:17253. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/nberrus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.