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Valuation and Optimal Exercise of the Wild Card Option in the Treasury Bond Futures Market

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  • Alex Kane
  • Alan J. Marcus

Abstract

The Chicago Board of Trade Treasury Bond Futures Contract allows the short position several delivery options as to when and with which bond the contract will be settled. The timing option allows the short position to choose any business day in the delivery month to make delivery. In addition, the contract settlement price is locked in at 2:00 p.m. when the futures market closes, despite the facts that the short position need not declare an intent to settle the contract until 8:00 p.m. and that trading in Treasury bonds car, occur all day in dealer markets. If bond prices change significantly between 2:00 and 8:00 p.m., the short has the option of settling the contract at a favorable 2:00 p.m. price. This phenomenon, which recurs on every trading day of the delivery month, creates a sequence of 6-hour put options for the short position which has been dubbed the "wild card option." This paper presents avaluation model for the wild card option and computes estimates of the value of that option, as well as rules for its optimal exercise.

Suggested Citation

  • Alex Kane & Alan J. Marcus, 1985. "Valuation and Optimal Exercise of the Wild Card Option in the Treasury Bond Futures Market," NBER Working Papers 1614, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:1614
    Note: ME
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Gay, Gerald D. & Manaster, Steven, 1984. "The quality option implicit in futures contracts," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 353-370, September.
    2. Garbade, Kenneth D & Silber, William L, 1983. "Futures Contracts on Commodities with Multiple Varieties: An Analysis of Premiums and Discounts," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 56(3), pages 249-272, July.
    3. Kilcollin, Thomas Eric, 1982. "Difference Systems in Financial Futures Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 37(5), pages 1183-1197, December.
    4. Phillips, Susan M. & Smith, Clifford Jr., 1980. "Trading costs for listed options : The implications for market efficiency," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(2), pages 179-201, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. David C. Ling, 1993. "Mortgage‐Backed Futures and Options," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 21(1), pages 47-67, March.
    2. Stanton, Richard, 2000. "From cradle to grave: How to loot a 401(k) plan," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(3), pages 485-516, June.
    3. Adam-Müller, Axel F. A. & Wong, Kit Pong, 2002. "The impact of delivery risk on optimal production and futures hedging," CoFE Discussion Papers 02/08, University of Konstanz, Center of Finance and Econometrics (CoFE).
    4. Michèle Breton & Ramzi Ben‐Abdallah, 2018. "Time is money: An empirical investigation of delivery behavior in the U.S. T‐Bond futures market," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(1), pages 22-37, January.
    5. Dan W. French & Edwin D. Maberly, 1992. "Early Exercise Of American Index Options," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 15(2), pages 127-137, June.
    6. Merrick, John Jr & Naik, Narayan Y. & Yadav, Pradeep K., 2005. "Strategic trading behavior and price distortion in a manipulated market: anatomy of a squeeze," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(1), pages 171-218, July.

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