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Exchange Rate and Current Account Dynamics Under Rational Expectations: An Econometric Analysis

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  • David H. Papell

Abstract

An econometric portfolio balance model of an open economy, incorporating exchange rate, price, and current account dynamics, is derived and estimated.The usual stability conditions do not guarantee a unique rational expectations solution, and several proposals for resolving this situation are considered. Using constrained maximum likelihood methods, the model is estimated for Japan.The estimation results indicate that the model is quite successful in explaining the patterns found in the data. The model is estimated using several methods of resolving the question of non-uniqueness, and the results are compared.

Suggested Citation

  • David H. Papell, 1985. "Exchange Rate and Current Account Dynamics Under Rational Expectations: An Econometric Analysis," NBER Working Papers 1576, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:1576
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    Cited by:

    1. Ai Lian Tan Author_Email: tanal@utar.edu.my & Shiau Mooi Lim & Seow Shin Koong & Ying Yin Koay, 2011. "Exchange Rate And Current Account: Are They Co-Integrated Symmetrically Or Asymmetrically?," Annual Summit on Business and Entrepreneurial Studies (ASBES 2011) Proceeding 2011-019-150, Conference Master Resources.

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