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The Term Structure of the Forward Premium

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  • Craig S. Hakkio

Abstract

Most studies of the efficiency of the foreign exchange market focus on a single maturity -- usually a one month exchange rate. However, one observes that forward contracts of many maturities are simultaneously traded in the foreign exchange market. The hypothesis that the foreign. exchange market uses all available information has implications for the joint behavior of forward exchange rates of various maturities. This paper theoretically and empirically examines these implications. The paper proposes an equilibrium theory of the term structure of the forward premium. By combining the theory of the term structure of (domestic and foreign)interest rates with the hypothesis of interest rate parity, a simple expression relating the six month forward premium to a geometric average of expected future one month forward premiums can be developed. By assuming that the one and six month forward premiums can be expressed as a bivariate stochastic process, one can derive an expression for the expected one month forward premium. The theory will then impose highly non-linear cross equation restrictions on the parameters of the model. Two methods of testing the validity of the restrictions are presented. The results indicate that the data are consistent with the theory for Germany and inconsistent with the theory for Canada.

Suggested Citation

  • Craig S. Hakkio, 1980. "The Term Structure of the Forward Premium," NBER Working Papers 0426, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:0426
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Sargent, Thomas J, 1972. "Rational Expectations and the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 4(1), pages 74-97, Part I Fe.
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    1. Hodrick, Robert J. & Srivastava, Sanjay, 1984. "An investigation of risk and return in forward foreign exchange," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 3(1), pages 5-29, April.
    2. Ahtiala, Pekka & Orgler, Yair E., 1995. "The optimal pricing of exports invoiced in different currencies," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 61-77, April.
    3. Thomas Chiang & Jose Trinidad, 1997. "Risk and International Parity Conditions: A Synthesis from Consumption Based Models," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(2), pages 73-101.
    4. Lewis, Karen K, 1991. "Was There a "Peso Problem" in the U.S. Term Structure of Interest Rates: 1979-1982?," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 32(1), pages 159-173, February.
    5. Ito, Takatoshi, 1988. "Use of (Time-Domain) Vector Autoregressions to Test Uncovered Interest Parity," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 70(2), pages 296-305, May.
    6. Drakos, Konstantinos, 2003. "The term structure of deviations from the interest parity," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 13(1), pages 57-67, February.
    7. Bilson, John F O, 1981. "The "Speculative Efficiency" Hypothesis," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 54(3), pages 435-451, July.
    8. David S. Jones & V. Vance Roley, 1982. "Rational Expectations, the Expectations Hypothesis, and Treasury Bill Yields: An Econometric Analysis," NBER Working Papers 0869, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Robert E. Cumby & Maurice Obstfeld, 1984. "International Interest Rate and Price Level Linkages under Flexible Exchange Rates: A Review of Recent Evidence," NBER Chapters, in: Exchange Rate Theory and Practice, pages 121-152, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. John Sequeira & MICHAEL McALEER, 2000. "Testing the risk premium and cost-of-carry hypotheses for currency futures contracts," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(3), pages 277-289.
    11. S. M. Ahmed & M. I. Ansari, 1997. "Modelling the efficiency of the Canadian foreign exchange market: a bivariate transfer function analysis," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(1), pages 63-70.
    12. Pekka Ahtiala & Yair E. Orgler, 1999. "The Value of Invoice Currency Choice in a Volatile Exchange Rate Environment," Multinational Finance Journal, Multinational Finance Journal, vol. 3(1), pages 1-17, March.
    13. Obstfeld, Maurice, 1982. "Can We Sterilize? Theory and Evidence," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 72(2), pages 45-50, May.
    14. Garcia, Raúl, 1989. "Combined Tests of The Fisher and Expectation Hypothesis," Brazilian Review of Econometrics, Sociedade Brasileira de Econometria - SBE, vol. 9(1), April.

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