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Looking for the News in the Noise - Additional Stochastic Implications of Optimal Consumption Choice

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  • Laurence J. Kotlikoff
  • Ariel Pakes

Abstract

In neoclassical models of consumption choice under earnings uncertainty changes in consumption programs from one period to the next are determined by new information received about future earnings over the period. This proposition suggests testing the neoclassical model by ascertaining whether new earnings information explains consumption choice through time. It also suggests that actual consumption choices imbed extractable information about the extent and time resolution of earnings uncertainty. This paper derives a fairly general theoretical relationship between properly defined innnovations in consumption (noise) and revisions in expectations of lifetime earnings (news). It also clarifies the relationship between testing for the theoretical determinants of consumption and standard Euler tests that focus on theoretical nondeterminants of consumption. The chief prediction of the paper's theoretical results, that noise exactly equals news, is tested using aggregate time series data on consumption and earnings. We find that new earnings information explains only a very small fraction of the variance of aggregate consumption innovations. On the other hand, the extent of suboptimal consumption choice appears to be of little economic significance.

Suggested Citation

  • Laurence J. Kotlikoff & Ariel Pakes, 1984. "Looking for the News in the Noise - Additional Stochastic Implications of Optimal Consumption Choice," NBER Working Papers 1492, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:1492
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    1. Hall, Robert E, 1978. "Stochastic Implications of the Life Cycle-Permanent Income Hypothesis: Theory and Evidence," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 86(6), pages 971-987, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Gilbert Colletaz & Jean-Pierre Gourlaouen, 1990. "Coïntégration et structure par terme des taux d'intérêt," Revue Économique, Programme National Persée, vol. 41(4), pages 687-712.
    2. Carl E. Walsh, 1985. "Borrowing Restrictions and Wealth Constraints: Implications for Aggregate Consumption," NBER Working Papers 1629, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Joseph P. Dejuan & John J. Seater & Tony S. Wirjanto, 2010. "Testing the Stochastic Implications of the Permanent Income Hypothesis Using Canadian Provincial Data," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 72(1), pages 89-108, February.
    4. Syeda Fizza Gillani, 1996. "Risk-sharing in Rural Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 35(1), pages 23-48.
    5. Johannes Schwarze, 1994. "Subjective Measures of Economic Well-Being and the Influence of Income Uncertainty," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 94, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    6. West, Kenneth D., 1988. "The insensitivity of consumption to news about income," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 17-33, January.
    7. Fumio Hayashi, 1985. "Tests for Liquidity Constraints: A Critical Survey," NBER Working Papers 1720, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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