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The Federal Civil Service Retirement System: An Analysis of its Financial Condition and Current Reform Proposals

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  • Herman B. Leonard

Abstract

This paper analyzes the financial condition of the Federal Civil Service Retirement System. It begins by examining various official annual reports about the system published by the Office of personnel Management, discussing their differing assumptions and resulting differences in estimates of the unfunded liability.It then discusses the construction of a simulation model in which the current unfunded liabilities can be estimated under an entry age normal definition of pension obligations.The results suggest that, for reasonable estimates of salary increases,inflation,and benefits indexing, the unfunded liabilities of the CSRS are between $500 billionand $600 billion. (Even under the accrued benefits definition of pension obligations, which I argue is more relevant to private sector employment, the unfunded liability exceeds $400 billion). I argue that this constitutes a debt similar in burden per dollar to that represented by the explicitly recognized national debt, and nearly half as large.The last part of the paper considers current proposals to reform the CSRS to reduce the unfunded liabilities. They are found (1) to reduce the pension wealth of current federal workers by nearly one half, (2) to fall rather dramatically on middle aged federal employees, and (3) to leave the unfundedliabilities of the system still in excess of $400 billion.

Suggested Citation

  • Herman B. Leonard, 1984. "The Federal Civil Service Retirement System: An Analysis of its Financial Condition and Current Reform Proposals," NBER Working Papers 1258, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:1258
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Quinn, Joseph F, 1982. "Pension Wealth of Government and Private Sector Workers," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 72(2), pages 283-287, May.
    2. Garbade, Kenneth & Wachtel, Paul, 1978. "Time variation in the relationship between inflation and interest rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 4(4), pages 755-765, November.
    3. Smith, Sharon P, 1982. "Prospects for Reforming Federal Pay," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 72(2), pages 273-277, May.
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    Cited by:

    1. Herman B. Leonard, 1987. "Investing in the Defense Work Force: The Debt and Structure of Military Pensions," NBER Chapters, in: Public Sector Payrolls, pages 47-78, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Hughes, Gerard, 1988. "Irish Civil Service Superannuation Scheme," Research Series, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number GRS139.
    3. Robert P. Inman, 1985. "The Funding Status of Teacher Pensions: An Econometric Approach," NBER Working Papers 1727, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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