IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nbr/nberwo/12524.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Customer Risk from Real-Time Retail Electricity Pricing: Bill Volatility and Hedgability

Author

Listed:
  • Severin Borenstein

Abstract

One of the most critical concerns that customers have voiced in the debate over real-time retail electricity pricing is that they would be exposed to risk from fluctuations in their electricity cost. The concern seems to be that a customer could find itself consuming a large quantity of power on the day that prices skyrocket and thus receive a monthly bill far larger than it had budgeted for. I analyze the magnitude of this risk, using demand data from 1142 large industrial customers, and then ask how much of this risk can be eliminated through various straightforward financial instruments. I find that very simple hedging strategies can eliminate more than 80% of the bill volatility that would otherwise occur. Far from being complex, mystifying financial instruments that only a Wall Street analyst could love, these are simple forward power purchase contracts, and are already offered to retail customers by a number of fully-regulated utilities that operate real-time pricing programs. I then show that a slightly more sophisticated application of these forward power purchases can significantly enhance their effect on reducing bill volatility.

Suggested Citation

  • Severin Borenstein, 2006. "Customer Risk from Real-Time Retail Electricity Pricing: Bill Volatility and Hedgability," NBER Working Papers 12524, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:12524
    Note: IO AP EEE
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w12524.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Severin Borenstein & James Bushnell & Christopher R. Knittel & Catherine Wolfram, 2008. "Inefficiencies And Market Power In Financial Arbitrage: A Study Of California'S Electricity Markets," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 56(2), pages 347-378, June.
    2. Severin Borenstein & Stephen Holland, 2005. "On the Efficiency of Competitive Electricity Markets with Time-Invariant Retail Prices," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 36(3), pages 469-493, Autumn.
    3. Ronald I. McKinnon, 1967. "Futures Markets, Buffer Stocks, and Income Stability for Primary Producers," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 75(6), pages 844-844.
    4. Severin Borenstein, 2007. "Wealth Transfers Among Large Customers from Implementing Real-Time Retail Electricity Pricing," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2), pages 131-150.
    5. Gregory W. Brown & Klaus Bjerre Toft, 2002. "How Firms Should Hedge," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 15(4), pages 1283-1324.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Pretto, Madeline, 2021. "Tail-risk Comprehension and Protection in Real-time Electricity Pricing : Experimental Evidence," Warwick-Monash Economics Student Papers 25, Warwick Monash Economics Student Papers.
    2. Cabot, Clément & Villavicencio, Manuel, 2024. "The demand-side flexibility in liberalised power market: A review of current market design and objectives," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 201(C).
    3. Allcott, Hunt, 2011. "Rethinking real-time electricity pricing," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 820-842.
    4. Fred Schroyen & Adekola Oyenuga, 2011. "Optimal pricing and capacity choice for a public service under risk of interruption," Journal of Regulatory Economics, Springer, vol. 39(3), pages 252-272, June.
    5. Milstein, Irena & Tishler, Asher, 2015. "Can price volatility enhance market power? The case of renewable technologies in competitive electricity markets," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 70-90.
    6. Kopsakangas Savolainen, Maria & Svento, Rauli, 2012. "Real-Time Pricing in the Nordic Power markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 1131-1142.
    7. James Cochell & Peter Schwarz & Thomas Taylor, 2012. "Using real-time electricity data to estimate response to time-of-use and flat rates: an application to emissions," Journal of Regulatory Economics, Springer, vol. 42(2), pages 135-158, October.
    8. Streimikiene, Dalia & Siksnelyte, Indre, 2016. "Sustainability assessment of electricity market models in selected developed world countries," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 72-82.
    9. Sioshansi, Ramteen, 2016. "Retail electricity tariff and mechanism design to incentivize distributed renewable generation," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 498-508.
    10. S. Borenstein, 2013. "Effective and Equitable Adoption of Opt-In Residential Dynamic Electricity Pricing," Review of Industrial Organization, Springer;The Industrial Organization Society, vol. 42(2), pages 127-160, March.
    11. Willems, Bert & Morbee, Joris, 2010. "Market completeness: How options affect hedging and investments in the electricity sector," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 786-795, July.
    12. Reus, Lorenzo & Munoz, Francisco D. & Moreno, Rodrigo, 2018. "Retail consumers and risk in centralized energy auctions for indexed long-term contracts in Chile," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 566-577.
    13. Zhao, Huan, 2011. "Four Market Studies for the Beef and Electric Power Industries," ISU General Staff Papers 201101010800001360, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    14. Ramteen Sioshansi, . "Retail Electricity Tariff and Mechanism Design to Incentivise Distributed Generation," Chapters, in: Shigeru Kimura & Youngho Chang & Yanfei Li (ed.), Financing Renewable Energy Development in East Asia Summit Countries A Primer of Effective Policy Instruments, chapter 9, pages 267-296, Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA).
    15. Yumi Yoshida & Kenta Tanaka & Shunsuke Managi, 2017. "Which dynamic pricing rule is most preferred by consumers?—Application of choice experiment," Journal of Economic Structures, Springer;Pan-Pacific Association of Input-Output Studies (PAPAIOS), vol. 6(1), pages 1-11, December.
    16. Paul L. Joskow, 2012. "Creating a Smarter U.S. Electricity Grid," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 26(1), pages 29-48, Winter.
    17. Bajo-Buenestado, Raúl, 2017. "Welfare implications of capacity payments in a price-capped electricity sector: A case study of the Texas market (ERCOT)," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 272-285.
    18. Pébereau, Charles & Remmy, Kevin, 2023. "Barriers to real-time electricity pricing: Evidence from New Zealand," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    19. Arlt, Marie-Louise & Chassin, David & Rivetta, Claudio & Sweeney, James, 2024. "Impact of real-time pricing and residential load automation on distribution systems," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 184(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Gambardella, Christian & Pahle, Michael, 2018. "Time-varying electricity pricing and consumer heterogeneity: Welfare and distributional effects with variable renewable supply," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 257-273.
    2. Yumi Oum & Shmuel S. Oren, 2010. "Optimal Static Hedging of Volumetric Risk in a Competitive Wholesale Electricity Market," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 7(1), pages 107-122, March.
    3. Krishnamurthy, Chandra Kiran B. & Vesterberg, Mattias & Böök, Herman & Lindfors, Anders V. & Svento, Rauli, 2018. "Real-time pricing revisited: Demand flexibility in the presence of micro-generation," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 123(C), pages 642-658.
    4. Paul L. Joskow, 2012. "Creating a Smarter U.S. Electricity Grid," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 26(1), pages 29-48, Winter.
    5. Jaeyong An & P. R. Kumar & Le Xie, 2016. "Dynamic Modeling of Price Responsive Demand in Real-time Electricity Market: Empirical Analysis," Papers 1612.05021, arXiv.org.
    6. Makena Coffman & Paul Bernstein & Derek Stenclik & Sherilyn Wee & Aida Arik, 2018. "Integrating Renewable Energy with Time Varying Pricing," Working Papers 2018-6, University of Hawaii Economic Research Organization, University of Hawaii at Manoa.
    7. Goutam Dutta & Krishnendranath Mitra, 2017. "A literature review on dynamic pricing of electricity," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 68(10), pages 1131-1145, October.
    8. Paul L. Joskow & Catherine D. Wolfram, 2012. "Dynamic Pricing of Electricity," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(3), pages 381-385, May.
    9. Zhao, Huan, 2011. "Four Market Studies for the Beef and Electric Power Industries," ISU General Staff Papers 201101010800001360, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    10. Yumi Oum & Shmuel Oren & Shijie Deng, 2006. "Hedging quantity risks with standard power options in a competitive wholesale electricity market," Naval Research Logistics (NRL), John Wiley & Sons, vol. 53(7), pages 697-712, October.
    11. Brown, David P. & Sappington, David E.M., 2018. "On the role of maximum demand charges in the presence of distributed generation resources," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 237-249.
    12. S. Borenstein, 2013. "Effective and Equitable Adoption of Opt-In Residential Dynamic Electricity Pricing," Review of Industrial Organization, Springer;The Industrial Organization Society, vol. 42(2), pages 127-160, March.
    13. Fabra, Natalia, 2021. "The energy transition: An industrial economics perspective," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    14. Bell, Peter N, 2014. "The variance-minimizing hedge with put options," MPRA Paper 62156, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Hilden, Mikael & Huuki, Hannu & Kivisaari, Visa & Kopsakangas-Savolainen, Maria, 2018. "The importance of transnational impacts of climate change in a power market," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 418-425.
    16. Allcott, Hunt, 2011. "Rethinking real-time electricity pricing," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 820-842.
    17. Blonz, Joshua & Palmer, Karen & Wichman, Casey & Wietelman, Derek C., 2021. "Smart Thermostats, Automation, and Time-Varying Prices," RFF Working Paper Series 21-20, Resources for the Future.
    18. Kopsakangas Savolainen, Maria & Svento, Rauli, 2012. "Real-Time Pricing in the Nordic Power markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 1131-1142.
    19. Andreas Röthig, 2009. "Microeconomic Risk Management and Macroeconomic Stability," Lecture Notes in Economics and Mathematical Systems, Springer, number 978-3-642-01565-6, July.
    20. Fang, Debin & Wang, Pengyu, 2023. "Optimal real-time pricing and electricity package by retail electric providers based on social learning," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C).

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • L51 - Industrial Organization - - Regulation and Industrial Policy - - - Economics of Regulation
    • L94 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Transportation and Utilities - - - Electric Utilities

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:12524. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/nberrus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.