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Activist monetary policy, imperfect capital mobility, and the overshooting hypothesis

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  • Papell, David H.

Abstract

The hypothesis of exchange rate over shooting is investigated in the context of a model that incorporates activist monetary policy, variable output, imperfect capital mobility, and slow price adjustment. Monetary policy which accommodates prices and/or interest rates is shown to increase the likelihood of undershooting. Using constrained maximum likelihood methods,the model is estimated for Germany and Japan since the advent of generalized floating in 1973. Based on the estimated parameter values, the mark exhibits overshooting while the yen is characterized by undershooting. The constraints implied by the model cannot (by likelihood ratio tests) be rejected at standard significance levels for either country.
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  • Papell, David H., 1985. "Activist monetary policy, imperfect capital mobility, and the overshooting hypothesis," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(3-4), pages 219-240, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:inecon:v:18:y:1985:i:3-4:p:219-240
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    1. Papell, David H., 1984. "Activist monetary policy and exchange-rate overshooting: The Deutsche mark/dollar rate," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 3(3), pages 293-310, December.
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    1. Papell, David H., 1984. "Activist monetary policy and exchange-rate overshooting: The Deutsche mark/dollar rate," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 3(3), pages 293-310, December.
    2. Goldberg, Michael D., 2000. "On empirical exchange rate models: what does a rejection of the symmetry restriction on short-run interest rates mean?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(5), pages 673-688, October.
    3. Gonyung Park & Young-yong Kim, 2003. "An empirical analysis of nominal rigidities and exchange rate overshooting: an intertemporal approach," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(2), pages 153-166.
    4. Sharma, Susan Sunila & Bach Phan, Dinh Hoang & Narayan, Paresh Kumar, 2019. "Exchange rate effects of US government shutdowns: Evidence from both developed and emerging markets," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 1-1.
    5. Paresh Kumar Narayan & Seema Narayan & Siroos Khademalomoom & Dinh Hoang Bach Phan, 2018. "Do Terrorist Attacks Impact Exchange Rate Behavior? New International Evidence," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 56(1), pages 547-561, January.
    6. Goldberg, Michael D., 1995. "Symmetry restrictions and the semblance of neutrality in exchange rate models," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 579-599.
    7. Herrera Revuelta, Julio, 1997. "Expectativas racionales y política monetaria endógena en la determinación del tipo de cambio. Una ampliación empírica a la pseta-dolar y la peseta-ecu," Estudios de Economia Aplicada, Estudios de Economia Aplicada, vol. 7, pages 39-66, Junio.
    8. Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Bannigidadmath, Deepa & Narayan, Seema, 2021. "How much does economic news influence bilateral exchange rates?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).

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