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The Labor Market and Macro Volatility: A Nonstationary General-Equilibrium Analysis

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  • Robert E. Hall

Abstract

The evolution of the aggregate labor market is far from smooth. I investigate the success of a macro model in replicating the observed levels of volatility of unemployment and other key variables. I take variations in productivity growth and in exogenous product demand (government purchases plus net exports) as the primary exogenous sources of fluctuations. The macro model embodies new ideas about the labor market, all based on equilibrium - the models I consider do not rest on inefficiency in the use of labor caused by an inappropriate wage. I find that non-standard features of the labor market are essential for understanding the volatility of unemployment. These models include simple equilibrium wage stickiness, where the sticky wage is an equilibrium selection rule. A second model based on modern bargaining theory delivers a different kind of stickiness and has a unique equilibrium. A third model posits fluctuations in matching efficiency that may arise from variations over time in the information about prospective jobs among job-seekers. Reasonable calibrations of each of the three models match the observed volatility of unemployment.

Suggested Citation

  • Robert E. Hall, 2005. "The Labor Market and Macro Volatility: A Nonstationary General-Equilibrium Analysis," NBER Working Papers 11684, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:11684
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Robert E. Hall, 1987. "Consumption," NBER Working Papers 2265, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Merz, Monika, 1995. "Search in the labor market and the real business cycle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 269-300, November.
    3. Alexopoulos, Michelle, 2004. "Unemployment and the business cycle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(2), pages 277-298, March.
    4. Robert Shimer, 2005. "The Cyclical Behavior of Equilibrium Unemployment and Vacancies," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(1), pages 25-49, March.
    5. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1978. "Asset Prices in an Exchange Economy," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(6), pages 1429-1445, November.
    6. Andolfatto, David, 1996. "Business Cycles and Labor-Market Search," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(1), pages 112-132, March.
    7. Mortensen, Dale & Pissarides, Christopher, 2011. "Job Creation and Job Destruction in the Theory of Unemployment," Ekonomicheskaya Politika / Economic Policy, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, vol. 1, pages 1-19.
    8. Lucas, Deborah J., 1994. "Asset pricing with undiversifiable income risk and short sales constraints: Deepening the equity premium puzzle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 325-341, December.
    9. Hall, Robert E, 1988. "Intertemporal Substitution in Consumption," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(2), pages 339-357, April.
    10. Kenneth L. Judd, 1998. "Numerical Methods in Economics," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262100711, April.
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    Cited by:

    1. Francesco Zanetti, 2006. "Labor Market Frictions into Staggered Wage Contracts," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 5(13), pages 1-7.
    2. Christiano, Lawrence & Motto, Roberto & Rostagno, Massimo & Ilut, Cosmin, 2008. "Monetary policy and stock market boom-bust cycles," Working Paper Series 955, European Central Bank.
    3. Mark Gertler & Antonella Trigari, 2009. "Unemployment Fluctuations with Staggered Nash Wage Bargaining," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 117(1), pages 38-86, February.
    4. Wallis, Kenneth F., 2008. "Macroeconomic modelling in central banks in Latin America," Documentos de Proyectos 3627, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
    5. Farmer, Roger, 2005. "Shooting the Auctioneer," CEPR Discussion Papers 4825, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    6. Cheremukhin, Anton A. & Restrepo-Echavarria, Paulina, 2014. "The labor wedge as a matching friction," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 71-92.
    7. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:5:y:2006:i:13:p:1-7 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Morten O. Ravn & Saverio Simonelli, 2007. "Labor Market Dynamics and the Business Cycle: Structural Evidence for the United States," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 109(4), pages 743-777, December.
    9. Di Nola, Alessandro, 2015. "Capital Misallocation during the Great Recession," MPRA Paper 68289, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. repec:bla:scandj:v:109:y:2008:i:4:p:743-777 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Garey Ramey, 2008. "Exogenous vs. Endogenous Separation," 2008 Meeting Papers 466, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    12. Coles, Melvyn G. & Mortensen, Dale T., 2015. "The response of employment and wages to aggregate shocks: On-the-job search effect," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 7-17.
    13. Ramey, Garey, 2008. "Exogenous vs. Endogenous Separation," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series qt0qb196qd, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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