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Weak and Semi-Strong Form Stock Return Predictability Revisited

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  • Wayne E. Ferson
  • Andrea Heuson
  • Tie Su

Abstract

This paper makes indirect inference about the time-variation in expected stock returns by comparing unconditional sample variances to estimates of expected conditional variances. The evidence reveals more predictability as more information is used, and no evidence that predictability has diminished in recent years. Semi-strong form evidence suggests that time-variation in expected returns remains economically important.

Suggested Citation

  • Wayne E. Ferson & Andrea Heuson & Tie Su, 2005. "Weak and Semi-Strong Form Stock Return Predictability Revisited," NBER Working Papers 11021, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:11021
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    1. Ferson, Wayne E. & Sarkissian, Sergei & Simin, Timothy, 2008. "Asset Pricing Models with Conditional Betas and Alphas: The Effects of Data Snooping and Spurious Regression," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 43(2), pages 331-353, June.
    2. Wayne E. Ferson & Andrea Heuson & Tie Su, 2004. "Weak and Semi-Strong Form Stock Return Predictability, Revisited," NBER Working Papers 10689, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Bali, Turan G. & Demirtas, K. Ozgur & Levy, Haim, 2008. "Nonlinear mean reversion in stock prices," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(5), pages 767-782, May.
    4. Stéphane Goutte & David Guerreiro & Bilel Sanhaji & Sophie Saglio & Julien Chevallier, 2019. "International Financial Markets," Post-Print halshs-02183053, HAL.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

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