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Causality and Innovations Between Fertility and Infant Mortality

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  • Tadashi Yamada

Abstract

The main issue of this paper is to study the sign and direction of causality between two demographic variables --the fertility rate and the infant mortality rate - by using time series methodology. It is shown that a fall in fertility will decrease infant mortality below its normal level. It is also shown that fertility and infant mortality are not mutually independent but jointly determined. Therefore, when one constructs a model of the relationship between fertility and infant mortality,it is suggested that one should estimate a fertility equation in which infant mortality rate is an endogenous variable in a simultaneous equations system and vice versa.

Suggested Citation

  • Tadashi Yamada, 1983. "Causality and Innovations Between Fertility and Infant Mortality," NBER Working Papers 1093, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:1093
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Michael Grossman & Steven Jacobowitz, 1981. "Variations in infant mortality rates among counties of the United States: The roles of public policies and programs," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 18(4), pages 695-713, November.
    2. David Heer, 1966. "Economic development and fertility," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 3(2), pages 423-444, June.
    3. Randall Olsen, 1980. "Estimating the effect of child mortality on the number of births," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 17(4), pages 429-443, November.
    4. Mehra, Y P, 1977. "Money Wages, Prices, and Causality," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(6), pages 1227-1244, December.
    5. Michael Grossman & Steven Jacobowitz, 1981. "Variations in Infant Mortality Rates among Counties in the United States: The Roles of Social Policies and Programs," NBER Working Papers 0615, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Neftci, Salih N, 1978. "A Time-Series Analysis of the Real Wages-Employment Relationship," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 86(2), pages 281-291, April.
    7. Granger, C W J, 1969. "Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 37(3), pages 424-438, July.
    8. Cheng Hsiao, 1977. "Money And Income, Causality Detection," NBER Working Papers 0167, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Sims, Christopher A, 1972. "Money, Income, and Causality," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 62(4), pages 540-552, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Tadashi Yamada & Tetsuji Yamada, 1984. "Estimation of a Simultaneous Model of Married Women's Labor Force Participation and Fertility in Urban Japan," NBER Working Papers 1362, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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