IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nbr/nberwo/0167.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Money And Income, Causality Detection

Author

Listed:
  • Cheng Hsiao

Abstract

In this paper we intend to survey and suggest the theoretical framework of the important aspects of causality detection with the purpose of conveying to the reader the essential features and the different forms in which inferences may be drawn from given data. Section II presents the basic theorem characterizing the causality events and suggests two feedback detection methods which, like the one suggested by Pierce and Haugh (1977), are based on correlation analysis. In Section III we survey other well-known causality detection methods and try to relate and to compare them with the methods suggested in Section II. Section IV briefly reviews the theoretical controversy of the relationship between money and income and presents some empirical evidence based on the methods discussed in this paper. Conclusions are in Section V.

Suggested Citation

  • Cheng Hsiao, 1977. "Money And Income, Causality Detection," NBER Working Papers 0167, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:0167
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w0167.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Milton Friedman, 1971. "A Theoretical Framework for Monetary Analysis," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number frie71-1.
    2. Pierce, David A. & Haugh, Larry D., 1977. "Causality in temporal systems : Characterization and a survey," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 265-293, May.
    3. James Tobin, 1970. "Money and Income: Post Hoc Ergo Propter Hoc?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 84(2), pages 301-317.
    4. Granger, C W J, 1969. "Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 37(3), pages 424-438, July.
    5. Wu, De-Min, 1973. "Alternative Tests of Independence Between Stochastic Regressors and Disturbances," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 41(4), pages 733-750, July.
    6. Larry D. Haugh & David A. Pierce, 1977. "Causality in temporal systems: characterizations and a survey," Special Studies Papers 87, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    7. James Tobin, 1970. "Rejoinder," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 84(2), pages 328-329.
    8. Granger, C. W. J. & Newbold, P., 1974. "Spurious regressions in econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 111-120, July.
    9. Philip Cagan, 1965. "Determinants and Effects of Changes in the Stock of Money, 1875–1960," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number caga65-1.
    10. Grether, D M & Maddala, G S, 1973. "Errors in Variables and Serially Correlated Disturbances in Distributed Lag Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 41(2), pages 255-262, March.
    11. William C. Brainard & James Tobin, 1968. "Pitfalls in Financial Model-Building," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 244, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    12. Sims, Christopher A, 1972. "Money, Income, and Causality," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 62(4), pages 540-552, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Robert T. Michael, 1978. "Causation Among Socioeconomic Time-Series," NBER Working Papers 0246, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Tadashi Yamada, 1983. "Causality and Innovations Between Fertility and Infant Mortality," NBER Working Papers 1093, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Phipps, Tim, 1982. "Farmland Prices and the Return to Land: An Application of Causality Testing," 1982 Annual Meeting, August 1-4, Logan, Utah 279162, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    2. Allan Fels & Tran Van Hoa, 1981. "Causal Relationships in Australian Wage Inflation and Minimum Award Rates," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 57(1), pages 23-34, March.
    3. Adrian C. Darnell, 1994. "A Dictionary Of Econometrics," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 118.
    4. R. Jeffery Green & Gary R. Albrecht, 1979. "Testing for Causality in Regional Econometric Models," International Regional Science Review, , vol. 4(2), pages 155-164, December.
    5. Matthieu Droumaguet & Anders Warne & Tomasz Wozniak, 2015. "Granger Causality and Regime Inference in Bayesian Markov-Switching VARs," Department of Economics - Working Papers Series 1191, The University of Melbourne.
    6. Lamm, R. McFall Jr., 1980. "Effects of Government Policy on Agriculture: An Empirical Analysis," Economics Statistics and Cooperative Services (ESCS) Reports 329209, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    7. Abdur R. Chowdhury, 1991. "A Causal Analysis of Defense Spending and Economic Growth," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 35(1), pages 80-97, March.
    8. Ghassan, Hassan B. & ElHafidi, Miloud, 1999. "Tests de G-causalité et spécification d’un modèle économétrique: Application sur un panel sectoriel marocain [G-causality tests and specification of an econometric model: Evidence form Sectoral Mor," MPRA Paper 56433, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 13 Jan 2000.
    9. Andrea Silvestrini & David Veredas, 2008. "Temporal Aggregation Of Univariate And Multivariate Time Series Models: A Survey," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(3), pages 458-497, July.
    10. Garcia, Yolanda T. & Salayo, Nerissa D., 2009. "Price Dynamics and Cointegration in the Major Markets of Aquaculture Species in the Philippines," Asian Journal of Agriculture and Development, Southeast Asian Regional Center for Graduate Study and Research in Agriculture (SEARCA), vol. 6(1), pages 1-33, June.
    11. Nidhal Mgadmi & Houssem Rachdi & Hichem Saidi & Khaled Guesmi, 2019. "On the Instability of Tunisian Money Demand: Some Empirical Issues with Structural Breaks," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 17(1), pages 153-165, March.
    12. S. Gurcan Gulen, 1996. "Is OPEC a Cartel? Evidence from Cointegration and Causality Tests," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2), pages 43-57.
    13. McCrorie, J. Roderick & Chambers, Marcus J., 2006. "Granger causality and the sampling of economic processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 132(2), pages 311-336, June.
    14. Tsai, Grace Yueh-Hsiang, 1989. "A dynamic model of the U.S. cotton market with rational expectations," ISU General Staff Papers 1989010108000012168, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    15. Zhao, Xiaoli & Ma, Qian & Yang, Rui, 2013. "Factors influencing CO2 emissions in China's power industry: Co-integration analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 89-98.
    16. Walter C. Labys & Alfred Maizels, 1990. "Commodity Price Fluctuations and Macro-economic Adjustments in the Developed Countries," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-1990-088, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    17. Chen, Chung & Wu, Chunchi, 1999. "The dynamics of dividends, earnings and prices: evidence and implications for dividend smoothing and signaling," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 6(1), pages 29-58, January.
    18. Fatai, K & Oxley, Les & Scrimgeour, F.G, 2004. "Modelling the causal relationship between energy consumption and GDP in New Zealand, Australia, India, Indonesia, The Philippines and Thailand," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 64(3), pages 431-445.
    19. Bordo, Michael D., 1986. "Explorations in monetary history: A survey of the literature," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 339-415, October.
    20. John Geweke & Joel Horowitz & M. Hashem Pesaran, 2006. "Econometrics: A Bird’s Eye View," CESifo Working Paper Series 1870, CESifo.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:0167. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/nberrus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.