IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nbr/nberwo/10328.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Expanding Pharmaceutical Arsenal in the War on Cancer

Author

Listed:
  • Frank R. Lichtenberg

Abstract

Only about one third of the approximately 80 drugs currently used to treat cancer had been approved when the war on cancer was declared in 1971. We assess the contribution of pharmaceutical innovation to the increase in cancer survival rates in a differences in differences' framework, by estimating models of cancer mortality rates using longitudinal, annual, cancer-site-level data based on records of 2.1 million people diagnosed with cancer during the period 1975-1995. We control for fixed cancer site effects, fixed year effects, incidence, stage distribution of diagnosed patients, mean age at diagnosis, and surgery and radiation treatment rates. Cancers for which the stock of drugs increased more rapidly tended to have greater increases in survival rates. The increase in the stock of drugs accounted for about 50-60% of the increase in age-adjusted survival rates in the first 6 years after diagnosis. New cancer drugs increased the life expectancy of people diagnosed with cancer by about one year from 1975 to 1995. The estimated cost to achieve the additional year of life per person diagnosed with cancer below $3000 is well below recent estimates of the value of a statistical life-year. Since the lifetime risk of being diagnosed with cancer is about 40%, the estimates imply that new cancer drugs accounted for 10.7% of the overall increase in U.S. life expectancy at birth.

Suggested Citation

  • Frank R. Lichtenberg, 2004. "The Expanding Pharmaceutical Arsenal in the War on Cancer," NBER Working Papers 10328, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:10328
    Note: EH PR
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w10328.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Frank Lichtenberg, 2005. "The Impact of New Drug Launches on Longevity: Evidence from Longitudinal, Disease-Level Data from 52 Countries, 1982–2001," International Journal of Health Economics and Management, Springer, vol. 5(1), pages 47-73, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Kyle, Margaret & Dubois, Pierre, 2016. "The Effects of Pharmaceutical Innovation on Cancer Mortality," CEPR Discussion Papers 11487, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Lakdawalla, Darius N. & Sun, Eric C. & Jena, Anupam B. & Reyes, Carolina M. & Goldman, Dana P. & Philipson, Tomas J., 2010. "An economic evaluation of the war on cancer," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 333-346, May.
    3. Dolan, Paul & Metcalfe, Robert, 2012. "The relationship between innovation and subjective wellbeing," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 41(8), pages 1489-1498.
    4. Lionel Perrier & Magali Morelle & Nathalie Havet & Anthony Montella & Bertrand Favier & David Perol & Frédéric Gomez & Marie-Odile Carrere & Paul Rebattu, 2009. "The effect of health care expenditures on survival in locally advanced and metastatic Non Small Cell Lung Cancer," Working Papers 0903, Groupe d'Analyse et de Théorie Economique Lyon St-Étienne (GATE Lyon St-Étienne), Université de Lyon.
    5. Martin, Stephen & Rice, Nigel & Smith, Peter C., 2008. "Does health care spending improve health outcomes? Evidence from English programme budgeting data," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 826-842, July.
    6. Fabio Pammolli & Massimo Riccaboni & Nicola Carmine Salerno, 2012. "I Farmaci Oncologici in Italia: innovazione e sostenibilità economica," Working Papers CERM 02-2012, Competitività, Regole, Mercati (CERM).
    7. Lichtenberg Frank R., 2008. "Pharmaceutical Innovation and U.S. Cancer Survival, 1992-2003: Evidence from Linked SEER-MEDSTAT Data," Forum for Health Economics & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 10(1), pages 1-27, March.
    8. Dubois, Pierre & Kyle, Margaret, 2016. "The Effects of Pharmaceutical Innovation on Cancer Mortality Rates," TSE Working Papers 16-688, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).
    9. Rosarin Sruamsiri & Dennis Ross-Degnan & Christine Y Lu & Nathorn Chaiyakunapruk & Anita K Wagner, 2015. "Policies and Programs to Facilitate Access to Targeted Cancer Therapies in Thailand," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 10(3), pages 1-17, March.
    10. Okunade, Albert A., 2004. "Concepts, measures, and models of technology and technical progress in medical care and health economics," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(3), pages 363-368, July.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Nebibe Varol & Joan Costa-i-Font & Alistair McGuire, 2011. "Explaining Early Adoption on New Medicines: Regulation, Innovation and Scale," CESifo Working Paper Series 3459, CESifo.
    2. Rodrigo R. Soares, 2005. "Mortality Reductions, Educational Attainment, and Fertility Choice," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(3), pages 580-601, June.
    3. Papageorgiou, Chris & Savvides, Andreas & Zachariadis, Marios, 2007. "International medical technology diffusion," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(2), pages 409-427, July.
    4. Charles I. Jones, 2016. "Life and Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 124(2), pages 539-578.
    5. Francesco Lancia & Giovanni Prarolo, 2012. "A politico-economic model of aging, technology adoption and growth," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 25(3), pages 989-1018, July.
    6. repec:dau:papers:123456789/7972 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. John Vernon & Joseph Golec & J. Stevens, 2010. "Comparative Effectiveness Regulations and Pharmaceutical Innovation," PharmacoEconomics, Springer, vol. 28(10), pages 877-887, October.
    8. Frank R. Lichtenberg, 2007. "Importation And Innovation," Economics of Innovation and New Technology, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(6), pages 403-417.
    9. Rodrigo R. Soares, 2007. "On the Determinants of Mortality Reductions in the Developing World," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 33(2), pages 247-287, June.
    10. Chee-Ruey Hsieh & Ya-Ming Liu & Chia-Lin Chang, 2013. "Endogenous technological change in medicine and its impact on healthcare costs: evidence from the pharmaceutical market in Taiwan," The European Journal of Health Economics, Springer;Deutsche Gesellschaft für Gesundheitsökonomie (DGGÖ), vol. 14(2), pages 287-295, April.
    11. Bergh, Andreas & Nilsson, Therese, 2009. "Good for living? On the relation between globalization and life expectancy," Working Papers 2009:9, Lund University, Department of Economics.
    12. Lee Branstetter & Chirantan Chatterjee & Matthew J. Higgins, 2016. "Regulation and welfare: evidence from paragraph IV generic entry in the pharmaceutical industry," RAND Journal of Economics, RAND Corporation, vol. 47(4), pages 857-890, November.
    13. Pierre-Yves Crémieux & Pierre Ouellette & Patrick Petit, 2007. "Do Drugs Reduce Utilisation of Other Healthcare Resources?," PharmacoEconomics, Springer, vol. 25(3), pages 209-221, March.
    14. Felipe Ades & Christelle Senterre & Dimitrios Zardavas & Evandro de Azambuja & Razvan Popescu & Martine Piccart, 2017. "Are life-saving anticancer drugs reaching all patients? Patterns and discrepancies of trastuzumab use in the European Union and the USA," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 12(3), pages 1-11, March.
    15. Rexford E. Santerre, 2011. "National and International Tests of the New Drug Cost Offset Theory," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 77(4), pages 1033-1043, April.
    16. Joan Costa-Font & Alistair McGuire & Nebibe Varol, 2015. "Regulation effects on the adoption of new medicines," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 49(3), pages 1101-1121, November.
    17. Mondal, Shamim S. & Pingali, Viswanath, 2015. "Competition Law and the Pharmaceutical Sector in India," IIMA Working Papers WP2015-11-02, Indian Institute of Management Ahmedabad, Research and Publication Department.
    18. Margaret Oppenheimer & Helen LaVan & William Martin, 2015. "A Framework for Understanding Ethical and Efficiency Issues in Pharmaceutical Intellectual Property Litigation," Journal of Business Ethics, Springer, vol. 132(3), pages 505-524, December.
    19. Bui, Thi Mai Van & Stolpe, Michael, 2007. "The impact of new drug launches on the loss of labor from disease and injury: evidence from German panel data," Kiel Working Papers 1317, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    20. Heuer, Alexander & Mejer, Malwina & Neuhaus, Jennifer, 2007. "The national regulation of pharmaceutical markets and the timing of new drug launches in Europe," Kiel Advanced Studies Working Papers 437, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    21. Nebibe Varol & Joan Costa-Font & Alistair McGuire, 2012. "Do International Launch Strategies of Pharmaceutical Corporations Respond to Changes in the Regulatory Environment?," Chapters, in: Alistair McGuire & Joan Costa-Font (ed.), The LSE Companion to Health Policy, chapter 12, Edward Elgar Publishing.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • I12 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health Behavior
    • J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:10328. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/nberrus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.