IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nbr/nberwo/1019.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Value of Waiting to Invest

Author

Listed:
  • Robert L. McDonald
  • Daniel Siegel

Abstract

This paper studies the optimal timing of investment in an irreversible project where the benefits from the project and the investment cost follow continuous-time stochastic processes. The optimal time to invest and an explicit formula for the value of the option to invest are derived. The rule "invest if benefits exceed costs" does not properly account for the option value of waiting.Simulations show that this option value can be significant, and that for surprisingly reasonable parameter values it may be optimal to wait until benefits are twice the investment cost. Finally, we perform comparative static analysis on the valuation formula and on the rule for when to invest.

Suggested Citation

  • Robert L. McDonald & Daniel Siegel, 1982. "The Value of Waiting to Invest," NBER Working Papers 1019, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:1019
    Note: ME
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w1019.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ingersoll, Jonathan Jr., 1977. "A contingent-claims valuation of convertible securities," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 4(3), pages 289-321, May.
    2. Ben S. Bernanke, 1983. "Irreversibility, Uncertainty, and Cyclical Investment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 98(1), pages 85-106.
    3. Douglas A. Greenley & Richard G. Walsh & Robert A. Young, 1981. "Option Value: Empirical Evidence from a Case Study of Recreation and Water Quality," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 96(4), pages 657-673.
    4. Claude Henry, 1974. "Option Values in the Economics of Irreplaceable Assets," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 41(5), pages 89-104.
    5. Baldwin, Carliss Y. & Meyer, Richard F., 1979. "Liquidity preference under uncertainty: A model of dynamic investment in illiquid opportunities," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(4), pages 347-374, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Holzer, Patrick & Loy, Jens-Peter, 2016. "Messung Des Vermarktungserfolges Bei Marktfruchtbaubetrieben: Wie Groß Sind Die Unterschiede?," 56th Annual Conference, Bonn, Germany, September 28-30, 2016 244893, German Association of Agricultural Economists (GEWISOLA).
    2. Ciżkowicz, Piotr & Rzońca, Andrzej, 2010. "Inflation and corporate investment in selected OECD countries in the years 1960-2005 – an empirical analysis," MPRA Paper 29846, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Reyman, Katarzyna, 2024. "‘Ziemia jeść nie woła!’ – behavioural and institutional factors affecting delays in land development. The GZM Metropolis in Poland," SRE-Discussion Papers 01/2024, WU Vienna University of Economics and Business.
    4. Alan Marcus, 1987. "Corporate Pension Policy and the Value of PBGC Insurance," NBER Chapters, in: Issues in Pension Economics, pages 49-80, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Mankan M. Koné & Carl Gaigné & Lota Tamini, 2017. "Duopolistic Competition and Optimal Switching Time from Export to FDI in Uncertainty," CIRANO Working Papers 2017s-23, CIRANO.
    6. Tennert, Julius & Lambert, Marie & Burghof, Hans-Peter, 2017. "Moral hazard in VC finance: More expensive than you thought," Hohenheim Discussion Papers in Business, Economics and Social Sciences 02-2017, University of Hohenheim, Faculty of Business, Economics and Social Sciences.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Crabbé, Philippe, 1990. "Les économistes doivent-ils se mettre au vert?," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 66(3), pages 285-304, septembre.
    2. Hanemann, W. Michael, 1989. "Information and the concept of option value," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 23-37, January.
    3. Gürkan Bozma & Murat Akadg & Rahman Aydin, 2021. "Dynamic Relationships between Oil Price, Inflation and Economic Growth: A VARMA, GARCH-in-mean, asymmetric BEKK Model for Turkey," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 41(3), pages 1266-1281.
    4. Chavas, Jean-Paul, 1987. "On Risk Modeling And Its Implications For Economic Analysis," Regional Research Projects > 1987: S-180 Annual Meeting, March 22-25, 1987, San Antonio, Texas 272333, Regional Research Projects > S-180: An Economic Analysis of Risk Management Strategies for Agricultural Production Firms.
    5. Alexandra Rauchs & Marc Willinger, 1996. "Expérimentations sur les choix séquentiels : application à " l'effet irréversibilité"," Revue Économique, Programme National Persée, vol. 47(1), pages 51-71.
    6. Bragger, Jennifer DeNicolis & Bragger, Donald & Hantula, Donald A. & Kirnan, Jean, 1998. "Hyteresis and Uncertainty: The Effect of Uncertainty on Delays to Exit Decisions," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 74(3), pages 229-253, June.
    7. Hanemann, W. Michael, 1984. "On reconciling different concepts of option value," CUDARE Working Papers 6279, University of California, Berkeley, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics.
    8. Van Robays, Ine, 2012. "Macroeconomic uncertainty and the impact of oil shocks," Working Paper Series 1479, European Central Bank.
    9. Nancy Stokey, 2013. "Uncertainty and Investment Options," 2013 Meeting Papers 251, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    10. Laurent Denant-Boèmont, 1994. "Analyse Coûts-Avantages et flexibilité des choix techniques en transport public," Post-Print halshs-01481411, HAL.
    11. Hess, Joshua H. & Manning, Dale T. & Iverson, Terry & Cutler, Harvey, 2019. "Uncertainty, learning, and local opposition to hydraulic fracturing," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 102-123.
    12. Ine Van Robays, 2016. "Macroeconomic Uncertainty and Oil Price Volatility," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 78(5), pages 671-693, October.
    13. Kogan, Leonid, 2001. "An equilibrium model of irreversible investment," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(2), pages 201-245, November.
    14. Peter Leeson & Christopher Coyne & Peter Boettke, 2006. "Does the market self-correct? Asymmetrical adjustment and the structure of economic error," Review of Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(1), pages 79-90.
    15. Oscar Gutiérrez & Francisco Ruiz-Aliseda, 2011. "Real options with unknown-date events," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 7(2), pages 171-198, May.
    16. Afees Salisu & Idris Adediran, 2021. "Uncertainty Due to Infectious Diseases and Energy Market Volatility," Energy RESEARCH LETTERS, Asia-Pacific Applied Economics Association, vol. 1(1), pages 1-4.
    17. Bonciani, Dario, 2015. "Estimating the effects of uncertainty over the business cycle," MPRA Paper 65921, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Liu, Duan & Yu, Nizhou & Wan, Hong, 2022. "Does water rights trading affect corporate investment? The role of resource allocation and risk mitigation channels," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 117(C).
    19. Boyarchenko, Svetlana & Levendorskii[caron], Sergei, 2007. "Optimal stopping made easy," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(2), pages 201-217, February.
    20. Idriss Fontaine, 2021. "Uncertainty and Labour Force Participation," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 83(2), pages 437-471, April.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:1019. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/nberrus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.