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The Mixing Problem in Program Evaluation

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  • Charles F. Manski

Abstract

A common concern of evaluation studies is to learn the distribution of outcomes when a specified treatment policy or assignment rule, determines the treatment received by each member of a specified population. Recent studies have emphasized evaluation of policies providing the same treatment to all members of the population. In particular, experiments with randomized treatments have this objective. Policies mandating homogenous treatment of the population are of interest, but so are ones that permit treatment to vary across the population. This paper examines the use of empirical evidence on programs with homogenous treatments to infer the outcomes that would occur if treatment were to vary across the population. Experimental evidence from the Perry Preschool Project is used to illustrate the inferential problem and the main findings of the analysis.

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  • Charles F. Manski, 1993. "The Mixing Problem in Program Evaluation," NBER Technical Working Papers 0148, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberte:0148
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    1. Manski, C.F., 1990. "The Selection Problem," Working papers 90-12, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
    2. Horowitz, J.L. & Manski, C.F., 1992. "Identification and Robustness in the Presence of Errors in Data," Working Papers 92-05, University of Iowa, Department of Economics.
    3. Heckman, James J & Honore, Bo E, 1990. "The Empirical Content of the Roy Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(5), pages 1121-1149, September.
    4. Charles F. Manski, 1989. "Anatomy of the Selection Problem," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 24(3), pages 343-360.
    5. Manski, C.F. & Sandefur, G.D. & Mclanahan, S. & Powers, D., 1990. "Alternative Estimates Of The Effect Of Family Stucture During Adolescence On Hight School Graduation," Working papers 90-31, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
    6. Robinson, Chris, 1989. "The Joint Determination of Union Status and Union Wage Effects: Some Tests of Alternative Models," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(3), pages 639-667, June.
    7. Bjorklund, Anders & Moffitt, Robert, 1987. "The Estimation of Wage Gains and Welfare Gains in Self-selection," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 69(1), pages 42-49, February.
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