IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nbr/nberte/0010.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Granger-Causality and Stabilization Policy

Author

Listed:
  • Willem H. Buiter

Abstract

This paper aims to provide a stochastic, rational expectations extension of Tobin's "Money and Income; Post Hoc Ergo Proper Hoc?". It is well-known that money may Granger-cause real variables even though the joint density function of the real variables is invariant under changes in the deterministic components of the monetary feedback rule. The paper shows that failure of money to Granger-cause real variables does not preclude a stabilization role of money. In a number of examples the conditional second moment of real output is a function of the deterministic components of the monetary feedback rule. Yet money fails to Granger-cause output ("in mean" and "in variance"). In all these models money is a pure stabilization instrument: superneutrality is assumed. If the analysis is extended to "structural" or "al1ocative" instruments such as fiscal instruments, the conclusion is even stronger. Failure of these policy instruments to Granger-cause real variables is consistent with changes in the deterministic parts of the policy feedback rules being associated with changes in the conditional means of the real variables. Granger-causality tests are tests of "incremental predictive content". They convey no information about the invariance of the joint density function of real variables under changes in the deterministic components of policy feedback rules.

Suggested Citation

  • Willem H. Buiter, 1981. "Granger-Causality and Stabilization Policy," NBER Technical Working Papers 0010, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberte:0010
    Note: ITI IFM
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/t0010.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Turnovsky, Stephen J, 1980. "The Choice of Monetary Instrument under Alternative Forms of Price Expectations," The Manchester School of Economic & Social Studies, University of Manchester, vol. 48(1), pages 39-62, March.
    2. Sargent, Thomas J, 1976. "A Classical Macroeconometric Model for the United States," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(2), pages 207-237, April.
    3. Hsiao, Cheng, 1979. "Causality tests in econometrics," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 1(4), pages 321-346, November.
    4. McCallum, B. T. & Whitaker, J. K., 1979. "The effectiveness of fiscal feedback rules and automatic stabilizers under rational expectations," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 171-186, April.
    5. Granger, C. W. J., 1980. "Testing for causality : A personal viewpoint," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 2(1), pages 329-352, May.
    6. James Tobin, 1970. "Money and Income: Post Hoc Ergo Propter Hoc?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 84(2), pages 301-317.
    7. Fischer, Stanley, 1977. "Long-Term Contracts, Rational Expectations, and the Optimal Money Supply Rule," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(1), pages 191-205, February.
    8. Weiss, Laurence M, 1980. "The Role for Active Monetary Policy in a Rational Expectations Model," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(2), pages 221-233, April.
    9. Sargent, Thomas J & Wallace, Neil, 1975. ""Rational" Expectations, the Optimal Monetary Instrument, and the Optimal Money Supply Rule," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 83(2), pages 241-254, April.
    10. Phelps, Edmund S & Taylor, John B, 1977. "Stabilizing Powers of Monetary Policy under Rational Expectations," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(1), pages 163-190, February.
    11. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1977. "Rules Rather Than Discretion: The Inconsistency of Optimal Plans," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(3), pages 473-491, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. John B. Taylor, 1983. "Rational Expectations Models in Macroeconomics," NBER Working Papers 1224, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Mishkin, Frederic S, 1982. "Does Anticipated Monetary Policy Matter? An Econometric Investigation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 90(1), pages 22-51, February.
    3. Benassy, Jean-Pascal, 2001. "On the optimality of activist policies with a less informed government," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 45-59, February.
    4. J.M. Berk, 1998. "Monetary transmission: what do we know and how can we use it?," BNL Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 51(205), pages 145-170.
    5. John B. Taylor, 1982. "The role of expectations in the choice of monetary policy," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 47-95.
    6. Gbaguidi, David, 2012. "La courbe de Phillips : temps d’arbitrage et/ou arbitrage de temps," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 88(1), pages 87-119, mars.
    7. Buiter, Willem H., 1983. "Real effects of anticipated and unanticipated money : Some problems of estimation and hypothesis testing," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 207-224.
    8. Zijp, R. van, 1990. "New classical monetary business cycle theory," Serie Research Memoranda 0058, VU University Amsterdam, Faculty of Economics, Business Administration and Econometrics.
    9. Vallés Liberal, Javier & Viñals, José, 1999. "On the Real Effects of Monetary Policy: A Central Banker's View," CEPR Discussion Papers 2241, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    10. Taylor, John B., 1999. "Staggered price and wage setting in macroeconomics," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 15, pages 1009-1050, Elsevier.
    11. repec:onb:oenbwp:y::i:38:b:1 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Dotsey, Michael & King, Robert G., 1983. "Monetary instruments and policy rules in a rational expectations environment," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 357-382, September.
    13. Hwang, Chiun-Lin, 1989. "Optimal monetary policy in an open macroeconomic model with rational expectation," ISU General Staff Papers 1989010108000010197, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    14. Issing Otmar & Wieland Volker, 2013. "Monetary Theory and Monetary Policy: Reflections on the Development over the last 150 Years," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 233(3), pages 423-445, June.
    15. J.M. Berk, 1998. "Monetary transmission: what do we know and how can we use it?," Banca Nazionale del Lavoro Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 51(205), pages 145-170.
    16. Devadoss, Stephen, 1995. "Effects Of Fiscal Policies On U.S. Agriculture," A.E. Research Series 305138, University of Idaho, Department of Agricultural Economics and Rural Sociology.
    17. Gbaguidi DAVID, 2011. "Expectations Impact On The Effectiveness Of The Inflation-Real Activity Trade-Off," Theoretical and Practical Research in the Economic Fields, ASERS Publishing, vol. 2(2), pages 141-181.
    18. Charles Freedman, 1982. "The effect of U.S. policies on foreign countries: the case of Canada," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 97-129.
    19. Gbaguidi, David Sedo, 2011. "Regime Switching in a New Keynesian Phillips Curve with Non-zero Steady-state Inflation Rate," MPRA Paper 35481, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Devadoss, Stephen, 1994. "Sluggish Price Adjustments And The Effectiveness Of Aggregate Demand Policies At The Sectoral Level," A.E. Research Series 305122, University of Idaho, Department of Agricultural Economics and Rural Sociology.
    21. Snowdon, Brian & Vane, Howard R., 1996. "The development of modern macroeconomics: Reflections in the light of Johnson's analysis after twenty-five years," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 381-401.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberte:0010. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/nberrus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.