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Non-accelerating wage inflation rate of unemployment in Poland

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Abstract

The model of the wage bargaining constitutes a framework for calculation of the NAWRU in Poland. The approach used in the paper let me trace changes of the natural unemployment rate in Poland in the context of structural changes in the economy in the last decade. Moreover, I introduced the endogenous equilibrium rate into the existing macroeconomic model — ECMOD. It allowed me to simulate NAWRU behavior after economic shocks. Simulation results shed some light on channels and speed of adjustment of the modelled economy. Interestingly, when NAWRU is tied to the stock of capital, relative prices and fiscal variables, the model is able to replicate high degree of the unemployment persistence.

Suggested Citation

  • Katarzyna Budnik, 2008. "Non-accelerating wage inflation rate of unemployment in Poland," NBP Working Papers 48, Narodowy Bank Polski.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbp:nbpmis:48
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Robert J. Gordon, 1997. "The Time-Varying NAIRU and Its Implications for Economic Policy," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(1), pages 11-32, Winter.
    2. Daniel S. Hamermesh, 1980. "Transfers, Taxes, and the NAIRU," NBER Working Papers 0548, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Douglas O. Staiger & James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1997. "How Precise Are Estimates of the Natural Rate of Unemployment?," NBER Chapters, in: Reducing Inflation: Motivation and Strategy, pages 195-246, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. McDonald, Ian M & Solow, Robert M, 1981. "Wage Bargaining and Employment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(5), pages 896-908, December.
    5. Robert J. Gordon, 1998. "Foundations of the Goldilocks Economy: Supply Shocks and the Time-Varying NAIRU," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 29(2), pages 297-346.
    6. Stephen G. Hall & Jennifer V. Greenslade & S. G. Brian Henry, 1999. "On the Identification of Cointegrated Systems in Small Samples: Practical Procedures with an Application to UK Wages and Prices," Computing in Economics and Finance 1999 643, Society for Computational Economics.
    7. Tatiana Fic & Marcin Kolasa & Adam Kot & Karol Murawski & Michal Rubaszek & Magdalena Tarnicka, 2005. "ECMOD Model of the Polish Economy," NBP Working Papers 36, Narodowy Bank Polski.
    8. Shapiro, Carl & Stiglitz, Joseph E, 1984. "Equilibrium Unemployment as a Worker Discipline Device," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 74(3), pages 433-444, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Katarzyna Budnik & Michal Greszta & Michal Hulej & Marcin Kolasa & Karol Murawski & Michal Rot & Bartosz Rybaczyk & Magdalena Tarnicka, 2009. "The new macroeconometric model of the Polish economy," NBP Working Papers 62, Narodowy Bank Polski.
    2. Katarzyna Budnik, 2012. "Do those who stay work less? On the impact of emigration on the measured TFP in Poland," NBP Working Papers 113, Narodowy Bank Polski.
    3. Dudek, Sławomir & Pachucki, Dawid & Zachłod-Jelec, Magdalena & Zając, Tomasz & Kolski, Paweł & Fudała-Poradzińska, Iwona & Danielski, Kamil, 2012. "eMPF Econometric Model of Public Finance," MF Working Papers 14, Ministry of Finance in Poland, revised 12 Jun 2012.
    4. repec:nbp:nbpbik:v:47:y:2016:i:6:p:435-462 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Krzysztof Bartosik & Jerzy Mycielski, 2016. "Dynamika płac a długotrwałe bezrobocie w polskiej gospodarce," Bank i Kredyt, Narodowy Bank Polski, vol. 47(5), pages 435-462.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    equilibrium unemployment; NAWRU; macromodel; labour market;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E10 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - General
    • E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory

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