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The effect of house prices on bank risk: empirical evidence from Hungary

Author

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  • Ádám Banai

    (Magyar Nemzeti Bank)

  • Nikolett Vágó

    (Magyar Nemzeti Bank)

Abstract

Housing market is important from a macroprudential perspective because it has a strong effect on the banking sector. Changes in real estate prices may affect the level of bank risk through household mortgage lending, however, the literature has no clear conclusion on this impact mechanism. Using a bank-level database containing quarterly data from 1998 to 2016 we estimated dynamic fixed-effects panel models to examine how bank risk is influenced by housing prices via mortgage lending in the Hungarian banking system. According to the results (1) higher house prices lead to higher bank risk, (2) the higher the share of mortgage loans at a bank, the stronger the positive effect of house prices on bank risk. In the period following the onset of the crisis a much stronger positive relationship could be observed between house prices and bank risk than before the crisis. Using the house price gap which measures the deviation of house prices from their fundamental value we provide empirical evidence that the deviation hypothesis was stronger for Hungary. This suggests that both banks and households tend to undertake excessive risks during a housing market boom, which can be mitigated by macroprudential policy instruments.

Suggested Citation

  • Ádám Banai & Nikolett Vágó, 2018. "The effect of house prices on bank risk: empirical evidence from Hungary," NBP Working Papers 289, Narodowy Bank Polski.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbp:nbpmis:289
    Note: The authors would like to thank Bálint Dancsik and Mikko Mäkinen for their valuable suggestions. They are also grateful for the participants of the “Recent trends in the real estate market and its analysis (2017)” workshop in Warsaw, and the “15th ESCB Emerging Markets (2017)” workshop in Saariselka for their useful comments.
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Kiviet, Jan F., 1995. "On bias, inconsistency, and efficiency of various estimators in dynamic panel data models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 53-78, July.
    2. Lepetit, Laetitia & Strobel, Frank, 2013. "Bank insolvency risk and time-varying Z-score measures," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 73-87.
    3. Erjona REBI, 2016. "The relevance of the housing market for the banks’ risk profile in Albania," Eastern Journal of European Studies, Centre for European Studies, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, vol. 7, pages 151-168, June.
    4. Lucia Gibilaro & Gianluca Mattarocci, 2016. "Are Real Estate Banks More Affected by Real Estate Market Dynamics?," International Real Estate Review, Global Social Science Institute, vol. 19(2), pages 151-170.
    5. Nickell, Stephen J, 1981. "Biases in Dynamic Models with Fixed Effects," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(6), pages 1417-1426, November.
    6. Koetter, Michael & Poghosyan, Tigran, 2010. "Real estate prices and bank stability," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 1129-1138, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Elona Dushku & Antje Hildebrandt & Erjona Suljoti, 2019. "The impact of housing markets on banks’ risk-taking behavior: evidence from CESEE," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue Q3/19, pages 55-75.
    2. JUNG Heonyong, 2022. "Are The Effect Of Housing Prices On Bank Performance Different Among Korean Commercial, Regional And Specialized Banks?," Studies in Business and Economics, Lucian Blaga University of Sibiu, Faculty of Economic Sciences, vol. 17(1), pages 85-90, April.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    bank risk; house price index; mortgage loan; real estate market;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • G30 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - General
    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models

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