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Inflation expectations in Poland

Author

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  • Tomasz Łyziak

    (National Bank of Poland)

Abstract

This paper presents survey-based direct measures of inflation expectations of consumers, enterprises and financial sector analysts in Poland. It then goes on to provide the results of testing those features of inflation expectations that seem the most important from the point of view of monetary policy and its transmission mechanism. Characteristics of inflation expectations in Poland are diversified across the analysed groups of economic agents. Inflation expectations of financial sector analysts and enterprises outperform those of consumers in terms of their accuracy and information content, however also consumer inflation expectations are to some extent forward-looking.

Suggested Citation

  • Tomasz Łyziak, 2012. "Inflation expectations in Poland," NBP Working Papers 115, Narodowy Bank Polski.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbp:nbpmis:115
    Note: Proceedings from the NBP seminar “Monetary policy transmission mechanism in Poland. What do we know in 2011?”, December 5th, 2011.
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    File URL: https://static.nbp.pl/publikacje/materialy-i-studia/115_en.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bharat Trehan, 2015. "Survey Measures of Expected Inflation and the Inflation Process," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 47(1), pages 207-222, February.
    2. Emilia Tomczyk, 2007. "Testing rationality of price expectations on the basis of contingency tables," Working Papers 1, Department of Applied Econometrics, Warsaw School of Economics.
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    Cited by:

    1. Tomasz Lyziak, 2016. "Financial crisis, low inflation environment and short-term inflation expectations in Poland," Bank i Kredyt, Narodowy Bank Polski, vol. 47(3), pages 285-300.
    2. Fišera, Boris & Horváth, Roman, 2022. "Are exchange rates less important for trade in a more globalized world? Evidence for the new EU members," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 46(1).
    3. Tomasz Lyziak, 2014. "Inflation expectations in Poland, 2001–2013. Measurement and macroeconomic testing," NBP Working Papers 178, Narodowy Bank Polski.

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