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Two-dimensional smoothing of mortality rates

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  • Alexander Dokumentov
  • Rob J Hyndman

Abstract

We propose three new practical methods of smoothing mortality rates (the procedure known in demography as graduation) over two dimensions: age and time. The first method uses bivariate thin plate splines. The second uses a similar procedure but with lasso-type regularization. The third method also uses bivariate lasso-type regularization, but allows for both period and cohort effects. Thus the mortality rates are modelled as the sum of four components: a smooth bivariate function of age and time, smooth one-dimensional cohort effects, smooth one-dimensional period effects and random errors. Cross validation is used to compare these new methods of graduation with existing approaches.

Suggested Citation

  • Alexander Dokumentov & Rob J Hyndman, 2013. "Two-dimensional smoothing of mortality rates," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 26/13, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
    • Handle: RePEc:msh:ebswps:2013-26
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    File URL: http://business.monash.edu/econometrics-and-business-statistics/research/publications/ebs/wp26-13.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Hyndman, Rob J. & Booth, Heather, 2008. "Stochastic population forecasts using functional data models for mortality, fertility and migration," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 323-342.
    2. Hyndman, Rob J. & Shahid Ullah, Md., 2007. "Robust forecasting of mortality and fertility rates: A functional data approach," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 51(10), pages 4942-4956, June.
    3. Camarda, Carlo G., 2012. "MortalitySmooth: An R Package for Smoothing Poisson Counts with P-Splines," Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 50(i01).
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    Cited by:

    1. Alexander Dokumentov & Rob J. Hyndman, 2015. "STR: A Seasonal-Trend Decomposition Procedure Based on Regression," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 13/15, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Mortality rates; nonparametric smoothing; graduation; cohort effects; period effects.;
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