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The impossibility of non-manipulable probability aggregation

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Abstract

A probability aggregation rule assigns to each profile of probability functions across a group of individuals (representing their individual probability assignments to some propositions) a collective probability function (representing the group's probability assignment). The rule is "non-manipulable" if no group member can manipulate the collective probability for any proposition in the direction of his or her own probability by misrepresenting his or her probability function ("stratgic voting"). We show that, except in trivial cases, no probability aggregation rule satisfying two mild conditions (non-dictatorship and consensus preservation) is non-manipulable

Suggested Citation

  • Franz Dietrich & Christian List, 2024. "The impossibility of non-manipulable probability aggregation," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne 24001, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne.
    • Handle: RePEc:mse:cesdoc:24001
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. H. Moulin, 1980. "On strategy-proofness and single peakedness," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 35(4), pages 437-455, January.
    2. Dokow, Elad & Holzman, Ron, 2010. "Aggregation of binary evaluations," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 145(2), pages 495-511, March.
    3. Gibbard, Allan, 1973. "Manipulation of Voting Schemes: A General Result," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 41(4), pages 587-601, July.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    opinion pooling; social choice theory; non-manipulability; strategy-proofness; impossibility theorem; judgment aggregation; Gibbard-Satterthwaite Theorem;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D70 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - General
    • D71 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Social Choice; Clubs; Committees; Associations
    • D8 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty

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