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Impact of multimodality of distributions on VaR and ES calculations

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Unimodal probability distribution has been widely used for Value-at-Risk (VaR) computation by investors, risk managers and regulators. However, financial data may be characterized by distributions having more than one modes. Using a unimodal distribution may lead to bias for risk measure computation. In this paper, we discuss the influence of using multimodal distributions on VaR and Expected Shortfall (ES) calculation. Two multimodal distribution families are considered: Cobb's family and distortion family. We provide two ways to compute the VaR and the ES for them: an adapted rejection sampling technique for Cobb's family and an inversion approach for distortion family. For empirical study, two data sets are considered: a daily data set concerning operational risk and a three month scenario of market portfolio return built five minutes intraday data. With a complete spectrum of confidence levels from 0001 to 0.999, we analyze the VaR and the ES to see the interest of using multimodal distribution instead of unimodal distribution

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  • Dominique Guegan & Bertrand Hassani & Kehan Li, 2017. "Impact of multimodality of distributions on VaR and ES calculations," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne 17019, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne.
    • Handle: RePEc:mse:cesdoc:17019
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Dominique Guégan & Bertrand Hassani, 2015. "Distortion Risk Measure or the Transformation of Unimodal Distributions into Multimodal Functions," International Series in Operations Research & Management Science, in: Alain Bensoussan & Dominique Guegan & Charles S. Tapiero (ed.), Future Perspectives in Risk Models and Finance, edition 127, pages 71-88, Springer.
    2. Gao, Fuqing & Wang, Shaochen, 2011. "Asymptotic behavior of the empirical conditional value-at-risk," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(3), pages 345-352.
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    8. Bertrand K. Hassani & Wei Yang, 2016. "The Lila distribution and its applications in risk modelling," Post-Print halshs-01400186, HAL.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Risks; Multimodal distributions; Value-at-Risk; Expected Shortfall; Moments method; Adapted rejection sampling; Regulation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill

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