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Efficiency and unbiasedness of corn futures markets: New evidence across the financial crisis

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  • Chiara Pederzoli
  • Costanza Torricelli

Abstract

Recent years witnessed commodity prices increases which have fostered research-works on their predictability and a renewed interest of practitioners and policy makers. The objective of this paper is to test the predictive ability of futures prices on the underlying spot prices by taking corn, which is one of the most important agricultural commodities in terms of trading volumes and for its role in the dietary regime of many countries. We consider the corn futures on the CBOT in the period May 1998-December 2011 so as to extend previous studies on this market and to assess a possible effect of the financial crisis. Our results do not emphasize a role for the latter and, although we do not find evidence of efficiency and unbiasedness, the futures corn price turns out to be the best predictor of the spot price if compared with most used alternatives.

Suggested Citation

  • Chiara Pederzoli & Costanza Torricelli, 2013. "Efficiency and unbiasedness of corn futures markets: New evidence across the financial crisis," Centro Studi di Banca e Finanza (CEFIN) (Center for Studies in Banking and Finance) 0040, Universita di Modena e Reggio Emilia, Dipartimento di Economia "Marco Biagi".
    • Handle: RePEc:mod:wcefin:0040
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    2. Elisabetta Gualandri & Valeria Venturelli, 2013. "The financing of Italian firms and the credit crunch: findings and exit strategies," Centro Studi di Banca e Finanza (CEFIN) (Center for Studies in Banking and Finance) 13101, Universita di Modena e Reggio Emilia, Dipartimento di Economia "Marco Biagi".
    3. Elena Giarda & Gloria Moroni, 2018. "The Degree of Poverty Persistence and the Role of Regional Disparities in Italy in Comparison with France, Spain and the UK," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 136(1), pages 163-202, February.
    4. Beatrice Bertelli & Gianna Boero & Costanza Torricelli, 2021. "The market price of greenness A factor pricing approach for Green Bonds," Centro Studi di Banca e Finanza (CEFIN) (Center for Studies in Banking and Finance) 0083, Universita di Modena e Reggio Emilia, Dipartimento di Economia "Marco Biagi".
    5. Elena Giarda & Gloria Moroni, 2018. "The Degree of Poverty Persistence and the Role of Regional Disparities in Italy in Comparison with France, Spain and the UK," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 136(1), pages 163-202, February.
    6. Kuruppuarachchi, Duminda & Lin, Hai & Premachandra, I.M., 2019. "Testing commodity futures market efficiency under time-varying risk premiums and heteroscedastic prices," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 92-112.
    7. Dean Altshuler & Carlo Alberto Magni, 2015. "Introducing Aggregate Return on Investment as a Solution to the Contradiction Between Some PME Metrics and IRR," Centro Studi di Banca e Finanza (CEFIN) (Center for Studies in Banking and Finance) 0056, Universita di Modena e Reggio Emilia, Dipartimento di Economia "Marco Biagi".
    8. Stefano Cosma & Elisabetta Gualandri, 2013. "The sovereign debt crisis: the impact on the intermediation model of Italian banks," Centro Studi di Banca e Finanza (CEFIN) (Center for Studies in Banking and Finance) 0042, Universita di Modena e Reggio Emilia, Dipartimento di Economia "Marco Biagi".
    9. Elisabetta Gualandri & Valeria Venturelli, 2013. "The financing of Italian firms and the credit crunch: findings and exit strategies," Centro Studi di Banca e Finanza (CEFIN) (Center for Studies in Banking and Finance) 0041, Universita di Modena e Reggio Emilia, Dipartimento di Economia "Marco Biagi".
    10. Jebabli, Ikram & Roubaud, David, 2018. "Time-varying efficiency in food and energy markets: Evidence and implications," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 97-114.
    11. Massimo Baldini & Giovanni Gallo & Costanza Torricelli, 2017. "Past Income Scarcity and Current Perception of Financial Fragility," Centro Studi di Banca e Finanza (CEFIN) (Center for Studies in Banking and Finance) 0064, Universita di Modena e Reggio Emilia, Dipartimento di Economia "Marco Biagi".
    12. Chiara Pederzoli & Costanza Torricelli, 2019. "The impact of the Fundamental Review of the Trading Book: A preliminary assessment on a stylized portfolio," Centro Studi di Banca e Finanza (CEFIN) (Center for Studies in Banking and Finance) 0075, Universita di Modena e Reggio Emilia, Dipartimento di Economia "Marco Biagi".
    13. Carlo Alberto Magni, 2015. "Pseudo-naïve approaches to investment performance measurement," Centro Studi di Banca e Finanza (CEFIN) (Center for Studies in Banking and Finance) 0051, Universita di Modena e Reggio Emilia, Dipartimento di Economia "Marco Biagi".
    14. Stefano Cosma & Elisabetta Gualandri, 2014. "The sovereign debt crisis: the impact on the intermediation model of Italian banks," BANCARIA, Bancaria Editrice, vol. 2, pages 48-60, February.
    15. Elisabetta Gualandri & Mario Noera, 2014. "Monitoring Systemic Risk: A Survey Of The Available Macroprudential Toolkit," Centro Studi di Banca e Finanza (CEFIN) (Center for Studies in Banking and Finance) 0050, Universita di Modena e Reggio Emilia, Dipartimento di Economia "Marco Biagi".
    16. Elisabetta Gualandri & Mario Noera, 2014. "Towards A Macroprudential Policy In The Eu: Main Issues," Centro Studi di Banca e Finanza (CEFIN) (Center for Studies in Banking and Finance) 14110, Universita di Modena e Reggio Emilia, Dipartimento di Economia "Marco Biagi".
    17. Carlo Alberto Magni, 2015. "Pseudo-naïve approaches to investment performance measurement," Centro Studi di Banca e Finanza (CEFIN) (Center for Studies in Banking and Finance) 15021, Universita di Modena e Reggio Emilia, Dipartimento di Economia "Marco Biagi".
    18. Massimo Baldini & Giovanni Gallo & Costanza Torricelli, 2017. "Past Income Scarcity and Current Perception of Financial Fragility," Centro Studi di Banca e Finanza (CEFIN) (Center for Studies in Banking and Finance) 17121, Universita di Modena e Reggio Emilia, Dipartimento di Economia "Marco Biagi".
    19. Stefano Cosma & Francesca Pancotto & Paola Vezzani, 2018. "Customer Complaining and Probability of Default in Consumer Credit," Centro Studi di Banca e Finanza (CEFIN) (Center for Studies in Banking and Finance) 18031, Universita di Modena e Reggio Emilia, Dipartimento di Economia "Marco Biagi".
    20. Elisabetta Gualandri & Mario Noera, 2014. "Monitoring Systemic Risk: A Survey Of The Available Macroprudential Toolkit," Centro Studi di Banca e Finanza (CEFIN) (Center for Studies in Banking and Finance) 14111, Universita di Modena e Reggio Emilia, Dipartimento di Economia "Marco Biagi".
    21. Enrico Rubaltelli & Sergio Agnoli & Michela Rancan & Tiziana Pozzoli, 2015. "Emotional Intelligence and risk taking in investment decision-making," Centro Studi di Banca e Finanza (CEFIN) (Center for Studies in Banking and Finance) 15107, Universita di Modena e Reggio Emilia, Dipartimento di Economia "Marco Biagi".
    22. Enrico Rubaltelli & Sergio Agnoli & Michela Rancan & Tiziana Pozzoli, 2015. "Emotional Intelligence and risk taking in investment decision-making," Centro Studi di Banca e Finanza (CEFIN) (Center for Studies in Banking and Finance) 0053, Universita di Modena e Reggio Emilia, Dipartimento di Economia "Marco Biagi".
    23. Francesca Arnaboldi, Francesca Gioia, 2019. "Portfolio choice: Evidence from new-borns," Centro Studi di Banca e Finanza (CEFIN) (Center for Studies in Banking and Finance) 0078, Universita di Modena e Reggio Emilia, Dipartimento di Economia "Marco Biagi".
    24. Stefano Cosma & Francesca Pancotto & Paola Vezzani, 2018. "Customer Complaining and Probability of Default in Consumer Credit," Centro Studi di Banca e Finanza (CEFIN) (Center for Studies in Banking and Finance) 0068, Universita di Modena e Reggio Emilia, Dipartimento di Economia "Marco Biagi".

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    futures prices; corn futures; efficiency; unbiasedness;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
    • Q14 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agricultural Finance

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