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Assessing the implications of long term care policies in Italy: a microsimulation approach

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  • Massimo Baldini
  • Carlo Mazzaferro
  • Marcello Morciano

Abstract

This paper estimates the future characteristics of the long-term disabled in Italy and the evolution of total public expenditure for long-term care. The future dynamics of ltc expenditure in Italy is of particular relevance for two reasons: the limited and insufficient level of public expenditure currently targeted to the disabled, and the perspective in the next few decades of one of the most rapid ageing processes in the world. The analysis is carried out using a dynamic microsimulation model that estimates the evolution for the next five decades of the social and economic structure of the Italian population. After an analysis of the future structure of the pool of the disabled population, we consider two alternative hypotheses for the dynamics of public expenditure in ltc: the simple continuation of the current rules, and a significant increase in the generosity of public schemes, in order to satisfy the mounting pressure coming from households. We also compute the implicit tax rates needed to raise the required resources.

Suggested Citation

  • Massimo Baldini & Carlo Mazzaferro & Marcello Morciano, 2007. "Assessing the implications of long term care policies in Italy: a microsimulation approach," Center for the Analysis of Public Policies (CAPP) 0035, Universita di Modena e Reggio Emilia, Dipartimento di Economia "Marco Biagi".
    • Handle: RePEc:mod:cappmo:0035
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Oecd, 2006. "Projecting OECD Health and Long-Term Care Expenditures: What Are the Main Drivers?," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 477, OECD Publishing.
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    1. Angelo Marano & Carlo Mazzaferro & Marcello Morciano, 2012. "The strengths and failures of incentive mechanisms in notional defined contribution pension systems," Giornale degli Economisti, GDE (Giornale degli Economisti e Annali di Economia), Bocconi University, vol. 71(1), pages 33-70, October.

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