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Developing Countries' Stake in the Doha Round

Author

Listed:
  • Drusilla K. Brown

    (Tufts University)

  • Alan V. Deardorff

    (University of Michigan)

  • Robert M. Stern

    (University of Michigan)

Abstract

In this paper we discuss the various aspects of the Doha Round of Multilateral Trade Negotiations in the WTO that offer potential benefits for developing countries. We then use the Michigan Model of World Production and Trade to simulate the economic effects on the major trading countries/regions of the reductions in tariffs, subsidies in agriculture, and barriers in services that may be negotiated in the Doha Round, as well as a variety of regional free trade agreements (FTAs). We estimate that an assumed reduction of post-Uruguay Round tariffs and other barriers on agricultural and industrial products and services by 33 percent in the Doha Round would increase world welfare by $686.4 billion, with significant gains for all industrialized and developing countries/regions. Regional agreements such as an APEC FTA, an ASEAN Plus 3 FTA, and a Western Hemisphere FTA would increase global and member country welfare, but by much less than the Doha multilateral trade round. There would also be trade diversion and detrimental welfare effects on some nonmember countries for the FTAs analyzed. The welfare gains from multilateral trade liberalization are therefore considerably greater than the gains from preferential trading arrangements and more uniformly positive for all countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Drusilla K. Brown & Alan V. Deardorff & Robert M. Stern, 2003. "Developing Countries' Stake in the Doha Round," Working Papers 495, Research Seminar in International Economics, University of Michigan.
    • Handle: RePEc:mie:wpaper:495
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    File URL: http://fordschool.umich.edu/rsie/workingpapers/Papers476-500/r495.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Drusilla K. Brown & Alan V. Deardorff & Robert M. Stern, 2000. "Computational Analysis of the Accession of Chile to the NAFTA and Western Hemisphere Integration," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(2), pages 145-174, February.
    2. Drusilla K. Brown & Alan V. Deardorff & Robert M. Stern, 2003. "Multilateral, Regional and Bilateral Trade‐Policy Options for the United States and Japan," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(6), pages 803-828, June.
    3. Drusilla K. Brown & Robert M. Stern, 2001. "Measurement and Modeling of the Economic Effects of Trade and Investment Barriers in Services," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 9(2), pages 262-286, May.
    4. Thomas W. Hertel & Bernard M. Hoekman & Will Martin, 2002. "Developing Countries and a New Round of WTO Negotiations," The World Bank Research Observer, World Bank, vol. 17(1), pages 113-140.
    5. Harrison, W Jill & Pearson, K R, 1996. "Computing Solutions for Large General Equilibrium Models Using GEMPACK," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 9(2), pages 83-127, May.
    6. Wolfgang F. Stolper & Paul A. Samuelson, 1941. "Protection and Real Wages," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 9(1), pages 58-73.
    7. Drusilla K. Brown & Alan V. Deardorff & Robert M. Stern, 2001. "CGE Modeling and Analysis of Multilateral and Regional Negotiating Options," Discussion Papers Series, Department of Economics, Tufts University 0108, Department of Economics, Tufts University.
    8. repec:bla:reviec:v:9:y:2001:i:2:p:262-86 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Hertel, Thomas W. & Will Martin, 1999. "Would Developing Countries Gain from Inclusion of Manufactures in the WTO Negotiations?," GTAP Working Papers 397, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University.
    10. Bernard Hoekman, 2000. "The next round of services negotiations: identifying priorities and options," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 82(Jul), pages 31-52.
    11. Thomas W. Hertel, 2000. "Potential gains from reducing trade barriers in manufacturing, services and agriculture," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 82(Jul), pages 77-104.
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    1. Scott C. Bradford & Paul L. E. Grieco & Gary Clyde Hufbauer, 2006. "The Payoff to America from Globalisation," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(7), pages 893-916, July.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    WTO; Trade Liberalization;

    JEL classification:

    • F10 - International Economics - - Trade - - - General
    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration

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