IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/mdl/mdlpap/0502.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Stability and Growth Pact: An Index to Trigger an Early Warning Earlier?

Author

Listed:
  • Thierry Warin

Abstract

This paper addresses the question of a technical change in one the components of the Stability and Grown Pact (SGP). Indeed, the SGP is composed of (1) a political commitment, (2) a preventive element, and (3) a dissuasive element, and an improvement of the SGP efficacy can come from any of these three components. In this paper the author proposes a new early warning procedure, part of the preventive element. The ideal situation would be for the European Commission to be able to identify countries at risk as soon as they vote their national budgets. Although this is not possible, as the measures of the deficit are based on GDP forecasts, the conclusion this paper makes is that the EC should avoid relying on GDP forecasts by calculating a reference index.

Suggested Citation

  • Thierry Warin, 2005. "Stability and Growth Pact: An Index to Trigger an Early Warning Earlier?," Middlebury College Working Paper Series 0502, Middlebury College, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:mdl:mdlpap:0502
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.middlebury.edu/services/econ/repec/mdl/ancoec/0502.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Perotti, Roberto & Strauch, Rolf & von Hagen, Jürgen, 1997. "Sustainability of Public Finances," CEPR Discussion Papers 1781, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Beetsma, R.M.W.J. & Bovenberg, A.L., 1995. "The interaction of fiscal and monetary policy in a monetary union : Balancing credibility and flexibility," Discussion Paper 1995-101, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    3. Lars Jonung & Martin Larch, 2006. "Improving fiscal policy in the EU: the case for independent forecasts [‘Fiscal forecasting: The track record of the IMF, OECD and EC’]," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 21(47), pages 492-534.
    4. Joao L. M. Amador, 2000. "Fiscal policy and budget deficit stability in a continuous time stochastic economy," Nova SBE Working Paper Series wp384, Universidade Nova de Lisboa, Nova School of Business and Economics.
    5. Nielsen, Soren Bo, 1992. "A note on the sustainability of primary budget deficits," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 745-754.
    6. Dixit, Avinash & Lambertini, Luisa, 2001. "Monetary-fiscal policy interactions and commitment versus discretion in a monetary union," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(4-6), pages 977-987, May.
    7. Thierry Warin, 2004. "Should Europe Get Rid of the Stability and Growth Pact?," Middlebury College Working Paper Series 0415, Middlebury College, Department of Economics.
    8. Radu Vranceanu & Thierry Warin, 2001. "EMU: Optimal Fiscal Strategy and the Punishment Effectiveness," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 9(3), pages 494-504, August.
    9. Leith, Campbell & Wren-Lewis, Simon, 2006. "Compatibility between monetary and fiscal policy under EMU," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 50(6), pages 1529-1556, August.
    10. Francesco Mongelli, 1999. "The Effects of the European Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) on National Fiscal Sustainability," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 10(1), pages 31-61, February.
    11. Uhlig, H.F.H.V.S., 2002. "One Money, But Many Fiscal Policies in Europe : What are the Consequences?," Discussion Paper 2002-32, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    12. Uhlig, H.F.H.V.S., 2002. "One Money, But Many Fiscal Policies in Europe : What are the Consequences?," Other publications TiSEM f2cdcc6c-329f-4ae6-915b-2, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    13. Thierry Warin & Lindsay Wolff, 2005. "EuropeÕs Deficit Free Riders: A Panel Data Analysis," European Political Economy Review, European Political Economy Infrastructure Consortium, vol. 3(Spring), pages 5-17.
    14. Marco Buti & Gabriele Giudice, 2002. "Maastricht’s Fiscal Rules at Ten: An Assessment," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(5), pages 823-848, December.
    15. Bohn, Henning, 1995. "The Sustainability of Budget Deficits in a Stochastic Economy," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 27(1), pages 257-271, February.
    16. Fourçans André & Warin Thierry & Evans John T. & Hens Luc & Saenen Bert & Abid Fathi & Mikhail Azmi D. & Salehizadeh Mehdi, 2000. "Global Economy Quarterly, Issue 3," Global Economy Journal, De Gruyter, vol. 1(3), pages 109-109, December.
    17. Dixit, Avinash, 2001. "Games of monetary and fiscal interactions in the EMU," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(4-6), pages 589-613, May.
    18. Otmar Issing, 2002. "On Macroeconomic Policy Co‐ordination in EMU," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(2), pages 345-358, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Thierry Warin, 2005. "A Note on International Fiscal Policy Practices," Middlebury College Working Paper Series 0520, Middlebury College, Department of Economics.
    2. Paolo Biraschi, "undated". "Searching for the optimal EMU fiscal rule:an ex-post analysis of the SGP reform proposals," Working Papers wp2008-7, Department of the Treasury, Ministry of the Economy and of Finance.
    3. Sánchez, Marcelo, 2008. "Monetary stabilisation in a currency union of small open economies," Working Paper Series 927, European Central Bank.
    4. Pappa, Evi & Vassilatos, Vanghelis, 2007. "The unbearable tightness of being in a monetary union: Fiscal restrictions and regional stability," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 51(6), pages 1492-1513, August.
    5. André Fourçans & Thierry Warin, 2007. "Stability and Growth Pact II: Incentives and Moral Hazard," Journal of Economic Policy Reform, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 10(1), pages 51-62.
    6. Joao L. M. Amador, 2000. "Fiscal policy and budget deficit stability in a continuous time stochastic economy," Nova SBE Working Paper Series wp384, Universidade Nova de Lisboa, Nova School of Business and Economics.
    7. Lindbeck, Assar & Niepelt, Dirk, 2004. "Improving the SGP: Taxes and Delegation Rather than Fines," Seminar Papers 733, Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies.
    8. Thierry Warin & Kenneth Donahue, 2006. "The Stability and Growth Pact: A European Answer to the Political Budget Cycle?," Middlebury College Working Paper Series 0606, Middlebury College, Department of Economics.
    9. Oliver Grimm & Stefan Ried, 2007. "Macroeconomic Policy in a Heterogeneous Monetary Union," CER-ETH Economics working paper series 07/67, CER-ETH - Center of Economic Research (CER-ETH) at ETH Zurich.
    10. Bodo Herzog, 2004. "Warum verstoßen vorwiegend die großen EWU-Länder gegen den Stabilitäts- und Wachstumspakt?: Eine theoretische Beweisaufnahme," Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung / Quarterly Journal of Economic Research, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 73(3), pages 405-417.
    11. L. Lambertini & R. Rovelli, 2003. "Monetary and fiscal policy coordination and macroeconomic stabilization. A theoretical analysis," Working Papers 464, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna.
    12. Hubert Kempf & Leopold von Thadden, 2007. "On policy interactions among nations: when do cooperation and commitment matter ?," 2007 Meeting Papers 801, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    13. Andersen, Torben M., "undated". "The Macroeconomic Policy Mix in a Monetary Union with Flexible Inflation Targeting," Economics Working Papers 2003-2, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    14. Peter Bofinger & Eric Mayer, 2007. "Monetary and Fiscal Policy Interaction in the Euro Area with Different Assumptions on the Phillips Curve," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 18(3), pages 291-305, July.
    15. Oliver Landmann, 2012. "Rotating Slumps in a Monetary Union," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 23(2), pages 303-317, April.
    16. Oros, Cornel & Zimmer, Blandine, 2015. "Uncertainty and fiscal policy in a monetary union: Why does monetary policy transmission matter?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 85-93.
    17. Eijffinger, Sylvester & Governatori, Matteo, 2004. "Fiscal and Monetary Interaction: The Role of Asymmetries of the Stability and Growth Pact in EMU," CEPR Discussion Papers 4647, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    18. Zongsen Zou & Xiuling Wang & Dengtian Feng, 2020. "Adhere to the rules or be discretionary? Empirical evidence from the euro area," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 15(2), pages 501-525, April.
    19. Ignacy Święcicki & Jan J. Michałek, 2014. "Sources of difficulties in coordination of monetary and fiscal policies in the European Economic and Monetary Union," Ekonomia journal, Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw, vol. 39.
    20. Chari, V.V. & Kehoe, Patrick J., 2007. "On the need for fiscal constraints in a monetary union," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(8), pages 2399-2408, November.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    europe; fiscal rule; stability and growth pact; political economics;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E61 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • E63 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization; Treasury Policy
    • F02 - International Economics - - General - - - International Economic Order and Integration
    • F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:mdl:mdlpap:0502. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Vijaya Wunnava (email available below). General contact details of provider: .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.