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COVID-19 and Financial Markets: A Panel Analysis for European Countries

Author

Listed:
  • Jens Klose

    (THM Business School Giessen)

  • Peter Tillmann

    (Justus Liebig University Giessen)

Abstract

In order to fight the economic consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic, monetary and fiscal policy announced a large variety of support packages which are often unprecedented in size. In this paper, we provide an empirical analysis of the responses of European financial markets to these policy announcements. The key contribution is a very granular set of policy announcements, both at the national and the European level. We also differentiate between the first announcement in a series of policies and the subsequent announcements because the initial steps were often seen as bad news about the state of the economy. In a panel model we find that monetary policy, in particular through asset purchases, is effective in supporting the real economy and easing the pressure on governmental finances. Across all subsets of polices, it seems that monetary policy is more effective in supporting the stock market than national fiscal policy, though markets clearly distinguish between different types of policies.

Suggested Citation

  • Jens Klose & Peter Tillmann, 2020. "COVID-19 and Financial Markets: A Panel Analysis for European Countries," MAGKS Papers on Economics 202025, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    • Handle: RePEc:mar:magkse:202025
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Marek Jarociński & Peter Karadi, 2020. "Deconstructing Monetary Policy Surprises—The Role of Information Shocks," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 12(2), pages 1-43, April.
    2. Marek Jarocinski & Peter Karadi, 2017. "Central Bank Information Shocks," 2017 Meeting Papers 1193, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    3. Stephanie Ettmeier & Chi Hyun Kim & Alexander Kriwoluzky, 2020. "Financial Market Participants Expect the Coronavirus Pandemic to Have Long-Lasting Economic Impact in Europe," DIW Weekly Report, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 10(19/20), pages 243-250.
    4. Laura Alfaro & Anusha Chari & Andrew N. Greenland & Peter K. Schott, 2020. "Aggregate and Firm-Level Stock Returns During Pandemics, in Real Time," NBER Working Papers 26950, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    Cited by:

    1. Fendel, Ralf & Neugebauer, Frederik & Zimmermann, Lilli, 2021. "Reactions of euro area government yields to Covid-19 related policy measure announcements by the European Commission and the European Central Bank," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 42(C).
    2. Heyden, Kim J. & Heyden, Thomas, 2021. "Market reactions to the arrival and containment of COVID-19: An event study," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 38(C).
    3. Klose, Jens & Tillmann, Peter, 2022. "The Real and Financial Impact of COVID-19 Around the World," VfS Annual Conference 2022 (Basel): Big Data in Economics 264030, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    4. Naimoli, Antonio, 2022. "Modelling the persistence of Covid-19 positivity rate in Italy," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 82(PA).
    5. Greta Keliuotyte-Staniuleniene & Julius Kviklis, 2021. "Assessing the reaction of the Baltic stock market to the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic," Technium Social Sciences Journal, Technium Science, vol. 25(1), pages 260-272, November.
    6. He, Jingbin & Ma, Xinru & Wei, Qu, 2022. "Firm-level short selling and the local COVID-19 pandemic: Evidence from China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    7. Hussein Hassan & Minko Markovski & Alexander Mihailov, 2022. "COVID-19 Cases and Stock Prices by Sector in Major Economies: What Do We Learn from the Daily Data?," Economics Discussion Papers em-dp2022-04, Department of Economics, University of Reading.
    8. Neugebauer, Frederik & Russnak, Jan & Zimmermann, Lilli & Camarero Garcia, Sebastian, 2024. "Effects of the ECB’s communication on government bond spreads," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).
    9. Chen, Hongyi & Tillmann, Peter, 2023. "Lockdown spillovers," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    10. Bannigidadmath, Deepa & Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Phan, Dinh Hoang Bach & Gong, Qiang, 2022. "How stock markets reacted to COVID-19? Evidence from 25 countries," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 45(C).
    11. Ortmans, Aymeric & Tripier, Fabien, 2021. "COVID-induced sovereign risk in the euro area: When did the ECB stop the spread?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    12. Grabowski, Wojciech & Janus, Jakub & Stawasz-Grabowska, Ewa, 2023. "The COVID-19 pandemic and financial markets in Central Europe: Macroeconomic measures and international policy spillovers," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    13. Blotevogel, Robert & Hudecz, Gergely & Vangelista, Elisabetta, 2024. "Asset purchases and sovereign bond spreads in the euro area during the pandemic," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    14. Foo Jennifer & Witkowska Dorota, 2024. "The 2020 COVID-19 Financial Crisis Impact on the European Stock Markets and Economies. A Preliminary Analysis," Folia Oeconomica Stetinensia, Sciendo, vol. 24(1), pages 22-40.
    15. Klose, Jens & Tillmann, Peter, 2023. "Stock market response to Covid-19, containment measures and stabilization policies—The case of Europe," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 173(C), pages 29-44.
    16. Deev, Oleg & Plíhal, Tomáš, 2022. "How to calm down the markets? The effects of COVID-19 economic policy responses on financial market uncertainty," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    17. Klose, Jens, 2023. "European exchange rate adjustments in response to COVID-19, containment measures and stabilization policies," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    18. Algirdas Justinas Staugaitis & Bernardas Vaznonis, 2022. "Short-Term Speculation Effects on Agricultural Commodity Returns and Volatility in the European Market Prior to and during the Pandemic," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 12(5), pages 1-26, April.
    19. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Abdurrahman Nazif Çatık & Mohamad Husam Helmi & Coşkun Akdeniz & Ali İlhan, 2024. "Time-varying effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on stock markets and economic activity: evidence from the US and Europe," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 51(2), pages 529-558, May.
    20. Aymeric Ortmans & Fabien Tripier, 2020. "COVID-Induced Sovereign Risk in the Euro Area: When Did the ECB Stop the Contagion?," Working Papers 2020-11, CEPII research center.
    21. Luca Alfieri & Mustafa Hakan Eratalay & Darya Lapitskaya & Rajesh Sharma, 2022. "The Effects Of The Ecb Communications On Financial Markets Before And During Covid-19 Pandemic," University of Tartu - Faculty of Economics and Business Administration Working Paper Series 140, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, University of Tartu (Estonia).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    event study; announcements; fiscal policy; monetary policy; European Monetary Union;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory

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