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Measuring Accuracy of Projections of Central Taxes by the Finance Commission

Author

Listed:
  • D K Srivastava

    (Madras School of Economics)

  • C Bhujanga Rao

    (Madras School of Economics)

Abstract

This paper looks at the quality of forecasts/assessments made by some of the recent Finance Commissions for the shareable central taxes and own tax revenues of selected states. The Commissions covered under this analysis are Ninth to Twelfth Finance Commissions. It is observed that while direct taxes are underestimated in general, revenues from indirect taxes partially Union excise duties and custom duties have been over estimated. In respect of states, four selected states viz., Andhra Pradesh, Gujarat, Orissa and Assam are examined. While there is similarity between the approaches of Ninth, Tenth and Twelfth Finance Commissions in regard to middle and high income states, the Eleventh Finance Commission required that they raise tax revenues higher than what they were able to achieve.

Suggested Citation

  • D K Srivastava & C Bhujanga Rao, 2010. "Measuring Accuracy of Projections of Central Taxes by the Finance Commission," Working Papers 2010-052, Madras School of Economics,Chennai,India.
    • Handle: RePEc:mad:wpaper:2010-052
    as

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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jacob A. Mincer, 1969. "Economic Forecasts and Expectations: Analysis of Forecasting Behavior and Performance," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number minc69-1.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Central Taxes; Own Tax Revenues; Finance Commission;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H2 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue
    • H5 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies
    • H7 - Public Economics - - State and Local Government; Intergovernmental Relations

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