IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/lvl/lacicr/1305.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Why Do Analysts Disagree ?

Author

Listed:
  • Jean-Sébastien Michel
  • J. Ari Pandes

Abstract

This paper finds that about one-quarter of analyst forecast dispersion and one-half of the dispersion-return relationship between 1985 and 2012 are explained by analyst overconfidence. In particular, the firm’s analyst overconfidence mean and analyst overconfidence dispersion are the two most significant determinants of analyst forecast dispersion. Together, these two variables capture 77% of the explained variation in analyst forecast dispersion when all known determinants are considered. With respect to the dispersion-return relationship, the analyst forecast dispersion predicted by analyst overconfidence leads to a monthly hedging portfolio profit of 0.35% compared to a profit of 0.37% for the analyst forecast dispersion not predicted by analyst overconfidence.

Suggested Citation

  • Jean-Sébastien Michel & J. Ari Pandes, 2013. "Why Do Analysts Disagree ?," Cahiers de recherche 1305, CIRPEE.
    • Handle: RePEc:lvl:lacicr:1305
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.cirpee.org/fileadmin/documents/Cahiers_2013/CIRPEE13-05.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Berkman, Henk & Dimitrov, Valentin & Jain, Prem C. & Koch, Paul D. & Tice, Sheri, 2009. "Sell on the news: Differences of opinion, short-sales constraints, and returns around earnings announcements," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(3), pages 376-399, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Chen, Jiun-Lin & Sanger, Gary C. & Song, Wei-Ling, 2019. "The relationship insurance role of financial conglomerates: Evidence from earnings announcements," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 505-527.
    2. Benjamin Blau & Kathleen Fuller & Chip Wade, 2015. "Short Selling and Price Pressure Around Merger Announcements," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 48(2), pages 143-160, October.
    3. Constantinos Antoniou & Emilios C. Galariotis & Daniel Read, 2014. "Ambiguity Aversion, Company Size and the Pricing of Earnings Forecasts," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 20(3), pages 633-651, June.
    4. Blau, Benjamin M. & Pinegar, J. Michael, 2013. "Are short sellers incrementally informed prior to earnings announcements?," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(C), pages 142-155.
    5. Muñoz, Francisco, 2013. "Liquidity and firm investment: Evidence for Latin America," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(C), pages 18-29.
    6. Gerlinde Fellner & Erik Theissen, 2006. "Short Sale Constraints, Divergence of Opinion and Asset Values: Evidence from the Laboratory," Labsi Experimental Economics Laboratory University of Siena 009, University of Siena.
    7. Diogo Silva & António Cerqueira, 2021. "Financial Reporting Quality and Investors' Divergence of Opinion†," Accounting Perspectives, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 20(1), pages 79-107, March.
    8. Leippold, Markus & Lohre, Harald, 2014. "The dispersion effect in international stock returns," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 331-342.
    9. Yan, Zhipeng & Cheng, Lee-Young & Zhao, Yan & Huang, Chung-Yuan, 2016. "Daily short covering activity and the weekend effect: Evidence from Taiwan," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 166-184.
    10. Sheridan Titman & Naoto Isaka, 2014. "Long-run Effects of Minimum Trading Unit Reductions on Stock Prices," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 14(1), pages 75-103, March.
    11. Chapman, Kimball, 2018. "Earnings notifications, investor attention, and the earnings announcement premium," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(1), pages 222-243.
    12. Chen, Tao, 2020. "Does news affect disagreement in global markets?," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 174-183.
    13. Wan, Xiaoyuan, 2024. "Margin-buying, short-selling, and stock valuation: Why is the effect reversed over time in China?," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    14. Gregory Weitzner, 2023. "The Term Structure of Short Selling Costs," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 27(6), pages 2125-2161.
    15. Han, Yufeng & Zhou, Guofu & Zhu, Yingzi, 2016. "A trend factor: Any economic gains from using information over investment horizons?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 122(2), pages 352-375.
    16. Liu, Bibo & Wang, Huijun & Yu, Jianfeng & Zhao, Shen, 2020. "Time-varying demand for lottery: Speculation ahead of earnings announcements," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 138(3), pages 789-817.
    17. Akbas, Ferhat & Boehmer, Ekkehart & Jiang, Chao & Koch, Paul D., 2022. "Overnight returns, daytime reversals, and future stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(3), pages 850-875.
    18. Zhuo Li & Meiyu Tian & Guangda Ouyang & Fenghua Wen, 2021. "Relationship between investor sentiment and earnings news in high‐ and low‐sentiment periods," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(2), pages 2748-2765, April.
    19. Al-Nasseri, Alya & Menla Ali, Faek, 2018. "What does investors' online divergence of opinion tell us about stock returns and trading volume?," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 166-178.
    20. Sati P. Bandyopadhyay & Alan Guoming Huang & Kevin Jialin Sun & Tony S. Wirjanto, 2017. "The return premiums to accruals quality," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 48(1), pages 83-115, January.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Analyst Overconfidence; Self-Attribution Bias; Analyst Forecast Dispersion; Stock Returns;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G24 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Investment Banking; Venture Capital; Brokerage

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:lvl:lacicr:1305. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Manuel Paradis (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cirpeca.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.