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Econometric Inference, Cyclical Fluctuations, and Superior Information

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  • Denis Larocque
  • Michel Normandin

Abstract

This paper presents and assesses a procedure to estimate conventional parameters characterizing fluctuations at the business cycle frequency, when the economic agents' information set is superior to the econometrician's one. Specifically, we first generalize the conditions under which the econometrician can estimate these "cyclical fluctuation" parameters from augmented laws of motion for forcing variables that fully recover the agents' superior information. Second, we document the econometric properties of the estimates when the augmented laws of motion are possibly misspecified. Third, we assess the ability of certain information criteria to detect the presence of superior information.

Suggested Citation

  • Denis Larocque & Michel Normandin, 2004. "Econometric Inference, Cyclical Fluctuations, and Superior Information," Cahiers de recherche 0434, CIRPEE.
    • Handle: RePEc:lvl:lacicr:0434
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Normandin, Michel, 1999. "Budget deficit persistence and the twin deficits hypothesis," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 171-193, October.
    2. John Campbell & Angus Deaton, 1989. "Why is Consumption So Smooth?," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 56(3), pages 357-373.
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    5. Boileau, Martin & Normandin, Michel, 2002. "Aggregate employment, real business cycles, and superior information," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(3), pages 495-520, April.
    6. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
    7. King, Robert G. & Plosser, Charles I. & Rebelo, Sergio T., 1988. "Production, growth and business cycles : I. The basic neoclassical model," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(2-3), pages 195-232.
    8. Shiller, Robert J, 1979. "The Volatility of Long-Term Interest Rates and Expectations Models of the Term Structure," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 87(6), pages 1190-1219, December.
    9. Campbell, John Y & Shiller, Robert J, 1987. "Cointegration and Tests of Present Value Models," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 95(5), pages 1062-1088, October.
    10. Sheffrin, Steven M. & Woo, Wing Thye, 1990. "Present value tests of an intertemporal model of the current account," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(3-4), pages 237-253, November.
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    12. Boileau, Martin & Normandin, Michel, 2003. "Labor hoarding, superior information, and business cycle dynamics," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 397-418, November.
    13. Marjorie Flavin, 1993. "The Excess Smoothness of Consumption: Identification and Interpretation," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 60(3), pages 651-666.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Block bootstrap; Hidden variables; laws of motion for forcing variables; Monte Carlo simulations;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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